Hall: Childers is a nice guy who never stood out

Former Congressman Travis Childers would make a fine U.S. senator. His politics fairly well reflects the mindset of most northeast Mississippi voters — Mississippi voters in general, for that matter. He doesn't vote lockstep with the Democratic Party, was never a political leadership kind of guy and is genuinely a product of his upbringing and Prentiss County values.

But Travis Childers will not be the next U.S. senator from the Magnolia State.

This will come as no surprise to most voters, but Childers seemingly got into this race for one reason: Had incumbent U.S. Sen. Thad Cochran lost his primary, Childers was ready to wage a war for the heart of Mississippi voters. He would have tried to paint a narrative that offered a choice between moderate, pragmatic Mississippi values and a far-right national movement.

But Cochran won, which essentially leaves Childers as a lame-duck candidate.

In many ways, people were hoping Childers could rekindle his 2008 "magic" in 2014. He won a special election in a wide-open field after a runoff against then Southaven Mayor Greg Davis on May 13, 2008. Six months later, Childers once again defeated Davis in the regular general election, winning a full two-year term by a 10-percent margin.

Two events spurred Childers' victories in 2008:

1. An east vs. west competition within the First Congressional District. Childers represented the northeast block of Mississippi, while Davis represented a newer electorate from the Memphis suburban counties.

2. Barack Obama. While his organization was still in its infancy, it was being developed and fast. Childers tapped into that, and it helped propel him to victory.

Then Childers had to serve. He voted largely inline with his constituents, and he paid dearly for it.

Childers angered Democrats when he opposed the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare), the American Clean Energy and Security Act (cap and trade), repeal of Don't Ask Don't Tell, and the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act.

Childers angered Republicans by supporting Nancy Pelosi for speaker, voting to expand of the Children's Health Insurance Program and not supporting the repeal of Obamacare.

Say what you want to about partisanship, but party matters. Childers essentially became a man without a party, and soon a man without a district. He was beat up pretty badly in 2010 in his re-election bid against then-state Sen. Alan Nunnelee. What Childers had going for him in 2008 was no longer there, and his record at least ruffled if not outright angered everyone to which it also appealed.

The geographic advantage was gone, Nunnelee being from Tupelo. As a Republican, Nunnelee easily picked up DeSoto County and other areas in the highly GOP west, which was already accustomed to voting against Childers.

The political winds also had changed. A national movement was sweeping Republicans into office. House races across the country became a referendum on who should lead in Congress: liberal Nancy Pelosi from California or conservative John Boehner from Ohio?

It was the typical mid-term elections of a first-term president — the opposing party usually wins big. Republicans did, and Childers was out.

This year, the bet was that Childers' moderate voting record would be appealing against the far-right stances of Chris McDaniel, if the challenger were to win. Childers would have had the backing of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee were Mississippi suddenly an open seat. Turnout the 40 percent most Democrats are assured in just about any statewide election, pull Republicans from north Mississippi who know and respect him, and then add in a handful of Republicans who thought McDaniel was bad for the state, and Childers could have won. It still would have been a tight race, but McDaniel was beatable for a Democrat like Childers.

But reality is that McDaniel lost (someone let him know that, please), and Childers is facing off against Cochran. At the end of the day, Childers doesn't offer Mississippians a compelling alternative to Cochran, who has served the state well.

And that may be Childers' lasting political legacy, that of a nice guy who reflected his hometown values but in doing so never was able to stand out enough to build a political career in Congress. And that doesn't mean you have to be a partisan firebrand to succeed — Cochran and Nunnelee have proven as much — but you do need a stronger base than Childers' cross-party voting earned him.

In Childers' case, it comes down to timing. As good as his timing was in 2008, it's been horrible ever since.

Contact Sam R. Hall at srhall@jackson.gannett.com or (601) 961-7163. Follow @samrhall on Twitter.