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Magnolia Political Report
March 28, 2003
(Number 40)
MagnoliaReport.com
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AG Dropouts
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After
the qualifying deadline on March 1st, a lone Democrat and three Republicans
were in the race for Attorney General. Less than a month later, two Republicans
have exited the race, leaving former FBI agent and federal prosecutor
Scott Newton as the Republican nominee.
Would
be Republican Attorney General candidate Delbert Hosemann dropped out
of the race a few days after the qualifying deadline, citing the need
for the GOP to rally behind a single candidate. Hosemann’s sudden
exit was followed last week by former District Attorney and Circuit Court
Judge John Kitchens’ announcement that he was bowing-out as well.
Kitchens,
who found many of the Republican faithful lining-up behind Newton, and
who couldn’t campaign full-time until summer, took a parting shot
at Newton and the GOP by endorsing Jim Hood, the sole Democrat in the
race for Attorney General. Like Jim Hood, Kitchens once worked for Mike
Moore and the fact that both have connections as District Attorneys explains
a lot about the endorsement (Click
here to read endorsement letter).
Newton
has been traveling around the state and putting together a campaign team.
He has hired Neil Forbes, who ran Michigan Attorney General
Mike Cox’s successful campaign last year. Cox was the only GOP candidate
to win statewide in Michigan in what was otherwise a bad year for Republicans.
Forbes, a Virginia native who has several successful elections under his
belt, is also the son of Virginia Congressman Randy Forbes.
Jim
Hood was elected District Attorney from the 3rd Circuit Court District
in 1995. He has a strong base in North Mississippi representing Benton,
Calhoun, Chickasaw, Lafayette, Marshall, Tippah, and Union Counties. Prior
to becoming DA, Hood served as a law clerk for Justice Armis E. Hawkins,
and later spent five years as an Assistant Attorney General for Mike Moore.
Now
that this race is narrowed down to the two party nominees, we should see
the respective Democrat and Republican coalitions lining up behind each
candidate. The last time the Attorney General’s office was open
was 1987 when Republicans faced an uphill battle to win statewide. The
AG’s race this year will tell how much the gap between the parties
has closed.
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Candidate Training
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 The
Mississippi Republican Party hosted over 200 candidates and campaign staffers
from across the state at a campaign training seminar in Jackson (www.msgop.org/ChairmanReport3.htm).
The GOP recruited a record-breaking number of candidates for the 2003
election cycle, and was forced to move the event from their headquarters
to the Ag museum because of the crowd overflow.
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Rally for the Troops
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Thousands of Mississippians rallied at the capitol Thursday, March 21,
in support of our troops in the war against Iraq (www.magnoliareport.com/March21.htm).
The event featured Mississippi native Jack Lucas, the nation’s youngest
recipient of the Medal of Honor, and Supreme Court Justice Bill Waller,
Jr., a General in the Mississippi National Guard. State Auditor Phil Bryant
organized the event. (Click Here to
view pictures)
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Shows Staffers Make the Move
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The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has rounded out its staff
for the 2004 election cycle, including new hires for the committee's field,
political, and Hispanic voter programs. Glenn Rushing, the former Chief
of Staff to one-time Rep. Ronnie Shows, will become the committee's field
and base vote director. Rushing got his start in politics in 1992 working
on field and base voter programs for the 1992 Clinton Presidential Campaign.
Burns
Strider, who shared the Chief of Staff role with Rushing, will be moving
on from the DCCC to focus on the Blue Dogs and the world of rural America
for Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi.
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New Senator
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Unchallenged State Senate candidate Merle Flowers and his wife Stacey
announced the birth of their son Jackson Abner Flowers, 7lbs. 10 oz. born
on Friday, March 21st.
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Republican Ear
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 A
recent Washington Post feature on President George W. Bush's top political
advisor Karl Rove mentioned a Mississippi political figure. Rove has Bush's
ear, but when discussing who has Rove's ear, the Post listed First District
Congressman Roger Wicker who developed his friendship with Rove back in
their College Republican days. (http://www.sltrib.com/2003/Mar/03162003/nation_w/38863.asp)
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More Tort
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(Click picture for Barbour press release)
During a speech on Thursday, March 27 at Mississippi College’s School
of Law in Jackson, MS., Haley Barbour, Republican candidate for Governor,
called for additional tort reform measures in the state. Barbour said,
"The civil justice reforms that were passed in November 2002, were
a start, but there is still much work to be done if we are to end lawsuit
abuse in Mississippi.'' (Daily Journal, 3/28/03) “Barbour suggested
that Musgrove was far from the battle. He complained that Musgrove called
the session and then remained largely silent during the public debate.
"I will be active for tort reform the way Gov. (William) Winter was
for education," said Barbour.” (DeSoto Appeal, 3/28/03) “Barbour
also said he would push to tighten laws that specify where lawsuits can
be filed and how plaintiffs can join together for lawsuits. "We have
many mass tort cases that have absolutely no business being filed in Mississippi
state courts," he said. He also reiterated support for a $250,000
cap on pain-and-suffering damages in civil suits.” (Clarion-Ledger
3/28/03) “Barbour also proposed "a judicial appointment advisory
committee'' similar to what was started by Gov. William Winter to fill
judiciary vacancies. The advisory committee was abandoned by Republican
Gov. Kirk Fordice in the 1990s.” (Daily Journal 3/28/03). "Having
a governor appoint capable, fair judges who have genuine integrity and
no agenda but justice is essential." (DeSoto Appeal 3/28/03)
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Racing for Leadership
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Rep. Mark Formby (R-Picayune) has announced his candidacy for Speaker
Pro Tempore of the Mississippi House of Rperesentatives. The current speaker
pro tem, Robert Clark (D-Ebenezer), is retiring (as is Speaker Tim Ford).
Both the new speaker and the new speaker pro tem will be elected by vote
of the members of the House who are elected this fall to serve beginning
January 2004.
Formby is the first House Republican to openly announce his intention
to seek either the office of Speaker or Speaker Pro Tem. He has no election
opposition, and will return to the House next year after his re-election
this November. Formby, a Realtor by profession, is a graduate of Mississippi
State University, and is a former President of the Mississippi Jaycees.
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Transporting to Mississippi
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 Surface
Transportation Board Vice Chairman Wayne Burkes announced his resignation
last week to focus on his race for the Mississippi State Treasurers post.
(click picture for Burkes 'Candidates 2003' profile)
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HOUSE RACES TO WATCH
Districts 1 – 40
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District 3
Rep. Billy McCoy (Dem) vs. Dr. George Waddell (Rep)
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(click to view)
McCoy
is an early favorite for the Speakers race, but Marietta physician Dr.
George Waddell placed serious obstacles in his path when he filed to run
against McCoy in the district McCoy has represented since 1980.
According
to local sources, McCoy is not happy with Waddell’s late entry and
has made efforts to get his Republican opponent out of the race. Waddell
shows no signs of budging and Republican operatives claim that he will
give McCoy a run for his money.
Waddell’s
challenge to McCoy was probably a large factor behind Steve Holland (Dem
– Plantersville) who has no opposition, throwing his hat in the
race for the Speakers Post.
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District 4
Rep. Greg Ward (Dem), Steve Fisher (Dem) vs. A.S. Hogan (Rep), Brandon
Colom (Rep)
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(click
to view)
Incumbent Representative Greg Ward drew three challengers
for the House seat he has represented for one term. Ward, a moderate Democrat,
should be okay in his re-election campaign, but with a nominal $1,500
in his campaign war chest, he can’t afford any slip-ups. Ward’s
district votes strongly GOP in national elections, but Republicans suffer
from a huge drop-off in state contests.
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District 5
Open seat
Kelvin Buck (Dem), Hoyt Johnson (Dem), Ronnie Luther (Dem), Samantha Bean
McKinnie (Dem)
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(click
to view)
 Rep.
Jack Gadd (Dem – Hickory Flat) currently represents this district,
but he will be running in House District 13 this year due to redistricting.
This is about as Democrat of a district as there is. In fact, no Republican
even stepped-up to run.
Four
Democrats, Kelvin Buck, Hoyt Johnson, Ronnie Luther, and Samantha Bean
McKinnie have tossed their hats in the ring to run.
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District 6
Open seat
Kepler Mullins Doles (Rep), Forest Hamilton (Rep), Elsa Taylor (Rep) vs.
Doris Leake (Dem)
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(click
to view)
 When
Rep. Valeria Robertson (Rep – Olive Branch) announced that she is
leaving the House at the end of the year, three Republicans and one Democrat
jumped in the ring to succeed her.
Republicans
running for the seat include: Kepler Mullins Doles, a Nesbit Christmas
Tree farmer; Forest Hamilton, a retired pharmacist from Olive Branch;
and Elsa Taylor, the wife of former DeSoto County GOP Chairman Ron Taylor.
Hamilton and Taylor will probably start out front, but any of these three
could win the Republican nomination on August 5th. The DeSoto County district
leans heavily Republican, so whoever wins the GOP nomination should sail
to victory in November.
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District 10
Rep. Warner McBride (Dem), Dennis Bullard (Dem) vs. Chris Lawrence (Rep)
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(click
to view)
 In
most years, two-term incumbent Warner McBride would cruise to re-election.
He may again this year, but keep your eye on this race as a barometer
for possible anti-incumbent sentiment. If the electorate wakes up in an
anti-incumbent mood on November 4th, status quo House members like McBride
may struggle. It would take a huge tide to sweep McBride out of office
(which shouldn’t be expected), but he could have a much closer race
than he would in normal years.
McBride’s
district grabs the northwest corner of Tallahatchie County, covers much
of the eastern half of Panola County, and snakes through Lafayette County
around the city of Oxford. The district voted strongly for President George
W. Bush, but 1999 GOP gubernatorial nominee Mike Parker was thoroughly
beaten here – primarily because it is the home base of Governor
Ronnie Musgrove. McBride has two hurdles in the race. Dennis Bullard of
Lafayette County will challenge him in the primary and Chris Lawrence
of Oxford will take him on in the general. The fact that an incumbent
like McBride has two opponents already speaks volumes about potential
anti-incumbent sentiment brewing with the electorate.
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District 12
Jay Eads (Dem), Christi Smith (Dem) vs. Noal Akins (Rep)
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(click to view)
 First
term incumbent Jay Eads has become a lightening rod with both the business
and Trial Lawyer communities. Retired businessman Noal Akins threw his
hat in the ring of this Oxford-based seat in late February and trial lawyer
candidate Christi Smith entered the race as well. Incumbent Jay Eads is
going to have his hands full fighting opponents from both sides.
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District 17
Open seat
Leon Clay (Dem), Kelly Mims (Dem) vs. Brian Aldridge (Rep)
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(click
to view)
 Leon
Clay, a retired Coca-Cola executive, is probably the candidate to beat
to succeed retiring Representative Eloise Scott. Mims, a Tupelo lawyer,
will have to put together a strong campaign to beat Clay in the primary.
His best hope is for a large turnout in the GOP primary because of Clay’s
cross-over appeal.
Waiting
in the wings will be Brian Aldridge, who runs Touched By an Angel Ministries.
Aldridge got a free pass in the Republican primary when Tupelo City Councilman
Mike Coutoumanos dropped out of the race after the qualifying deadline.
The district leans Republican, but Aldridge will have his hands full if
Clay is the Democrat nominee. Either way, it should be an interesting
race to watch.
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District 18
Open seat
Billy Shelton (Dem), Scott Messer (Dem), Kristy Antillon-Webb (Dem), Randy
Daniel (Dem) vs. Jerry Turner (Rep)
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(click
to view)
 Two
Lee county districts were left open due to retirements this year. Though
this district, vacated by House Speaker Tim Ford, is less Republican than
district 17, the GOP stands a better shot of picking up this seat based
on the candidacy of Baldwyn grocer, Jerry Turner. Turner should win the
GOP primary in August. If he emerges, he will have a great shot at winning
the general.
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District 19
Rep. Jamie Franks (Dem), Sid Kirksey (Dem) vs. Jeremy Martin (Rep)
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(click
to view)
Incumbent Representative Jamie Franks made no bones about where he stood
on the tort reform fight during the 82 day special session last fall.
The plaintiff attorneys he sided with rewarded him with a good start on
his campaign war chest. On the last campaign finance reports, trial lawyers
provided 100% of the $22,100 he put in his campaign coffers.
Franks,
one of the last bastions of the old yellow-dog Democrats who used to dominate
state politics, represents a district in Northeast Mississippi. Even so,
Franks faces double jeopardy with pro-business candidates in both the
primary and general elections. The pro tort reform community will have
two shots at Franks by backing Jeremy Martin if Sid Kirksey is not successful
in the primary on August 5.
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District 20
Rep. J.B. Markhm (Dem) vs. Terry Dill (Rep), James Tucker (Rep)
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(click
to view)
 This
is a sleeper race to watch. J.B. Markhm has not made a lot of waves in
his four years in the legislature, yet he has drawn stiff opposition in
James Tucker, a popular Monroe County businessman and former Republican
County Chair. Tucker must first get by Terry Dill in the Republican primary,
which is always a dicey proposition in places like Monroe County where
the GOP primary is relatively small. If Tucker does make it through the
primary, and if Haley Barbour has coat tails in the fall, Tucker could
find himself in the legislature next January.
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District 23
Rep. Joey Grist (Dem), Steve Whitten (Dem) vs. Charles Jim Beckett (Rep),
Scott Griffen (Rep)
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(click
to view)
 Joey
Grist might be the most vulnerable incumbent in the House. A failed run
for Congress against Congressman Roger Wicker (Wicker beat him 70 to 29
percent) and some controversial business dealings have left Grist wounded.
Steve Whitten, who owns video stores in Bruce and Calhoun City, will challenge
Grist in the primary. However, Grist’s strongest opposition will
come in the fall in this Republican leaning district. Bruce attorney Charles
Jim Beckett is best positioned to knock off Grist in the general, but
he must first get by Scott Griffin of Mantee in the Republican primary.
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District 24
Rep. Donny Ryals (Dem) vs. Sidney Bondurant (Dem)
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(click
to view)
 Donny
Ryals is an incumbent who may be on the endangered species list. Grenada
OB-GYN Sidney Bondurant will give Ryals all he wants in this race. Ryals'
support doesn’t look deep in Grenada. Having only served one term
in the legislature also does not help Ryals' cause. Bondurant is a popular
local figure and he seems to have strong cross-over appeal. Early on,
he looks strong for the primary.
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District 25
Rep. John Mayo (Dem) vs. Ross Ose (Rep)
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(click to view)
 This
is another sleeper race to watch. House District 25 encompasses the western
part of Coahoma county, snakes up the levy through Tunica County, and
covers most of the western portion of DeSoto County. Surprisingly, the
Coahoma portion of the district gave George W. Bush an even higher percentage
of their vote than the 61% Bush received in the DeSoto portion of the
district. The Tunica County part of the district is hard core Democrat
but it only makes up 8% of this district. Structurally, House 25 leans
Republican, which could pose problems for first term Democrat Representative
John Mayo of Clarksdale. Mayo is unapologetically one of the few national
liberal Democrats in the legislature and a staunch opponent of the death
penalty. Based on the dynamics of the district, political newcomer and
healthcare consultant Ross Ose could pull the mild upset if he runs a
solid campaign.
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District 35
Open seat
Pete Powell (Dem), former Rep. Glenn Burdine (Dem) vs. Hank Watson (Rep),
Dannie Reed (Rep)
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(click
to view)
 Independent
Representative Charlie Smith of Eupora is vacating this seat he has held
since 1992. Though the district leans Republican, the Democrats have a
solid candidate in Pete Powell, the Webster County Superintendent of Schools,
if Powell can get past former State Representative Glenn Burdine in the
primary.
Either
Hank Watson of Starkville or Dannie Reed of Ackerman will await Powell
in the general. Watson is the son of a former highly regarded professor
at MSU but will be at an electoral disadvantage in the general because
his base of Oktibbeha County comprises of only a small part of the district.
Danny Reed would give Powell a much harder test. Reed has contacts throughout
Choctaw, Webster, and Oktibbeha Counties based on his career as an extension
service agent. The Democrats have a slight edge here in strength of candidates,
but Republicans have a decided advantage in the philosophical leanings
of the district.
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District 36
David Gibbs (Dem), David Lambert (Dem) vs. Jimmy Davidson (Ind)
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(click
to view)
 Clay
County Representative David Gibbs is probably the most conservative member
of the legislative black caucus. Even though his district is a moderate
one, he should have no problems retaining his seat against either challenger
David Lambert, West Point lawyer or Independent candidate Jimmy Davidson.
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District 37
Gary Chism (Rep) vs. Bob Ford (Dem)
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(click
to view)
 After
redistricting, Representative Gary Chism of Columbus found himself gerrymandered
into the same district as Representative Rob Roberson (Rep) of Starkville.
Roberson opted out of the House race to jump into the contest to succeed
retiring Senator Glenn Hamilton (Rep). The Chism – Ford race offers
a stark contrast between the conservative Republican Chism and the unabashedly
liberal Democrat Bob Ford. Ford is a retired MSU professor who recently
went so far as to participate in a Starkville anti-war rally. Unless the
wheels fall off in Baghdad, it probably wasn’t a smart move for
a political hopeful. Based on the district, which supported both Bush
and Parker, Chism should prevail.
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District 39
Rep. Jeff Smith (Rep) vs. Gene Coleman (Rep)
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(click
to view)
 House
veteran Jeff Smith is being challenged by Pharmacist Gene Coleman in this
Columbus based district. Smith’s tenure gives him a decided advantage
but his incumbency could work against him if the mood of the electorate
sours by Election Day. If Smith loses, it is going to be based upon a
powerful anti-incumbent wave and it will be a strong indicator that many
incumbents around the state are in for long election nights.
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District 40
New seat
Ted Mayhall (Rep), Kenneth Shackelford (Rep), John Wright (Rep) vs. Ron
Barnett (Dem)
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(click
to view)
 House
District 40 used to belong to Columbus Representative Gary Chism but it
was moved to DeSoto County to accommodate the county's booming population.
This new seat attracted three Republicans and one Democrat. Republicans
have a big advantage and will most likely pick up the seat. Early on,
the three-way Republican primary among Kenneth Shackelford, Ted Mayhall,
and John Wright is up for grabs.
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