Tagert, Adams likely top candidates for MS01: UPDATED

All signs point to Mike Tagert and Boyce Adams as the top contenders to replace the late-U.S. Rep. Alan Nunnelee in the May 12 special election.

Tagert, the northern district transportation commissioner, and Adams, who unsuccessfully challenged Brandon Presley for norther district public service commissioner in 2011, will not be the only candidates. For one, state Rep. Chris Brown, R-Aberdeen, officially announced his candidacy Tuesday. Brown is a freshman lawmaker who likely will not be a big factor in the race if both Tagert and Adams enter, which seems all but certain.

Over the past few days, the chatter about Adams has intensified. Multiple sources have said he's definitely in, and one went so far as to say he's even placed a buy or television ads.

Tagert, who has been considered the presumed frontrunner from the beginning, became all but a certainty when Hernando Mayor Chip Johnson filed to run for Northern District Transportation Commissioner on Tuesday. Tagert and Johnson are friends and allies, and this looks like an obvious political switcheroo.

Tagert will remain a candidate for re-election as transportation commissioner. However, if he wins the May 12 election, Johnson becomes the defacto nominee — unless someone else enters the race. If Tagert loses, one would expect Johnson to drop out of the race or stop running a serious race.

But here's an even more interesting storyline. Adams reportedly has the backing of Gov. Phil Bryant, while the Barbour machine is expected to get behind Tagert. Granted, Bryant likely will stay publicly neutral in this race, but his machine is expected to back Adams. The Barbours will be anything but publicly neutral if they do get involved.

Granted, additional candidates could enter the race and change the dynamics. But as of right now, this is where we stand. The next three days are going to be interesting.

ADDENDUM

Word this morning is that Republican District Attorney Trent Kelly has decided to run. Kelly is from Tupelo with a district that covers Alcorn, Itwawamba, Lee, Monroe, Pontotoc, Prentiss and Tishomingo counties.

If Kelly gets in the race, then he could become a top-tier candidate alongside Tagert and Adams. He has the same populist, prosecutorial, courthouse appeal that makes Attorney General Jim Hood as potent as he is.

Kelly's biggest obstacle will be fundraising. Tagert has already shown that he can raise money. If Adams enjoys the support of Bryant's team, then fundraising should not be overly difficult for him. Where Kelly turns is the question.

All three of these candidates have a base in the eastern part of the district, giving Tagert and Kelly the benefit of holding office there and regularly working with a constituency. It also means that Tagert has the best chance of winning in the western part of the district. He currently represents Desoto County, plus you would expect Johnson to work to deliver Desoto to Tagert.