OPINION

Pender: 2019 right around corner on political calendars

Geoff Pender
The Clarion-Ledger

On a regular calendar, 2019 might seem far distant, but state politicians and politicos are already pondering and maneuvering for what promise to be some free-for-all state races.

Here’s some of what the chattering classes have been chattering about lately for the top state offices:

Governor

For the first open gubernatorial race in eight years, Lt. Gov. Tate Reeves is the Republican heir apparent. I think he’s been running for this office since high school.

He will have a massive war chest — mark that $7 million to $10 million — a big campaign organization with “establishment” GOP backing and name recognition.

Will any upper-ticket incumbent Republicans — Secretary of State Delbert Hosemann, House Speaker Philip Gunn — challenge him? At this point, I’d bet not, although that could change. More likely, any GOP primary challenge would come from further right, the conservative/tea party wing, such as state Sen. Chris McDaniel. I’d still classify that as doubtful at this point. But the fed-up-edness among the conservative wing of the GOP for the establishment is nothing to sneeze at these days.

But for the general, it’s do-or-die for the flagging state Democratic Party. It has to field a legitimate candidate for the top of the ticket, after last year’s Robert Gray the unknown truck driver debacle.

All indications are that Attorney General Jim Hood, the “Last Democrat in Dixie” is at long last going to answer his party’s call to run for governor. Hood is an anomaly, a statewide elected Democrat who remains popular in a deeply red state. He can raise money, and at least make it a race.

But he would be a long, long shot to win. Particularly, if he’s running for governor in Mississippi with Hillary Clinton in the White House. Hood should probably open a New Houlka Trump for President field office.

There’s been a little talk of Democrats trying to run for the top races as a ticket — Hood for governor, PSC Commissioner Brandon Presley for lieutenant governor, someone else for AG — to pool resources, campaigns and such and try to out-turn out Republicans. That would be interesting.

Lieutenant governor

Pending Reeves wards off would-be challengers, lieutenant governor will be the free-for-all, no-holds-barred race, particularly in a GOP primary.

Hosemann is a likely candidate. Many others are said to be at least entertaining the thought: McDaniel, state Sens. Buck Clarke, Briggs Hopson, Terry Burton; Insurance Commissioner Mike Chaney (a former state senator).

I’ve even heard that U.S. Rep. Steven Palazzo has been considering a statewide run — lieutenant governor, auditor, etc. That, too, would be very interesting.

On the Democratic side, pending Hood were to run for governor, Presley is most often mentioned. If a large field of Republicans wail on each other in a nasty primary, it could give a leg up to a Democrat.

Attorney General

Assuming Hood doesn’t seek re-election — and even he has indicated he won’t — this race would likely create another free-for all.

Republican Treasurer Lynn Fitch is said to be all in for an AG run at this point. Former Assistant U.S. Attorney Mike Hurst, who gave it a good run against Hood last year, is also likely to try again.

As for other potentials, pick any Republican politician who’s a lawyer or district attorney, and they’re probably rumored to be considering a run for AG.

On the Democratic side, state Rep. David Baria’s name comes up for AG and other offices. As with Republicans, most any Democratic politician who is a lawyer or DA is said to be a potential candidate.

I’ve heard some talk that Democratic legal eagles such as former AG Mike Moore might consider the office a lost cause for Democrats and support Fitch. That would be interesting.

The Cochran factor

As has been the case before, longtime U.S. Sen. Thad Cochran’s plans could have a butterfly effect on state political races.

Even as he ran for re-election in 2014, there were questions as to how long he will stay in office.

If Republicans retain the Senate this year, Cochran has two more years as Senate Appropriations chairman. If Republicans were to lose the Senate, it wouldn’t be surprising for Cochran to retire.

An open U.S. Senate seat would bring a mad dash, particularly from Republicans, and alter statewide races. That would be interesting.

Contact Geoff Pender at 601-961-7266 or gpender@jackson.gannett.com. Follow @GeoffPender on Twitter

Geoff Pender

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