State's terrible April revenue report likely skewed

On its face, the state's April revenue report given to the Legislature this week is a shocker — the month's tax collections are down $85 million from estimates, and $79 million short compared to last April.

Were that true, such a shortfall would be cause for panic and likely force Gov. Phil Bryant to make a third round of cuts for fiscal 2016, which ends June 30.

But state tax officials say those figures are skewed largely because of income tax collections that came  in later in April and are being processed more slowly because budget cuts forced the Department of Revenue to send home 35 temporary mail room workers during tax time.

"The due date for (individual) taxes was three days later this year (April 18), and a lot of mail didn't get to us until last week," Department of Revenue spokeswoman Kathy Waterbury said Wednesday. "It's a shorter month, we lost work time, plus we lost people working on the mail. ... Saturday, through this morning, we put $68.5 million in the bank."

Clay Chandler, spokesman for Bryant, noted DOR's continued income tax collections in a written statement.

"As that continues, it will provide a clearer picture of the state's revenue situation as the fiscal year draws to a close," Chandler said. "The governor certainly hopes no more budget cuts will be required."

Revenue has been flagging and forced Bryant and lawmakers to make large state budget cuts for the current and coming fiscal years — in the double digits for some agencies and as bad or worse than during the Great Recession. Year-to-date recurring revenue as of March was on track to be slightly below the previous year for the first time since 2010. Corporate income tax collections are down nearly $80 million so far from last year and sales taxes by $2.5 million.

Related: State agencies pondering cuts, layoffs with new budget

But Waterbury said that once May revenue from individual income taxes is in, she doesn't expect collections to be too far in the tank, and certainly not by $70 million or more for the month. She said all DOR employees are pitching in opening mail and keying in reports and checks.

Waterbury said another issue that skewed April numbers was that last year DOR had individual income taxes in the bank faster that usual.

"Last April, we put $166.4 million in the bank, and only $30 million in May," Waterbury said. "In 2014, we had $91.4 million in April, and $93.1 million in May. They should have just used 2014 and prior years for the April estimate. We believe a lot of this is just going to be a timing estimate.

"We will know more in about a week and a half, when we're done."

Contact Geoff Pender at 601-961-7266 or gpender@jackson.gannett.com. Follow @GeoffPender on Twitter