NEWS

Six schools flagged for improbable test scores: Analysis

Emily Le Coz
The Clarion-Ledger
The Clarion-Ledger flagged six schools with improbably high test scores based on an analysis of 2014 test scores made public Tuesday, Aug. 26, 2014.

Newly released Mississippi Curriculum Test scores reveal just six incidents of potential cheating based on statistically improbable results, a dramatic drop from previous years that saw as many as triple that number, according to a Clarion-Ledger data analysis.

Most of this year's incidents occurred in the Delta. One happened within Jackson Public Schools. Officials at each of the districts contacted attributed the test results on hard work and denied any cheating.

The Mississippi Department of Education at midnight Tuesday released MCT2 English and math scores for every third- through eighth-grade class statewide. Students had taken the tests in May.

Using a statistical model, The Clarion-Ledger predicted what their scores should have been based on previous years' performance.

A handful matched the prediction exactly. The rest deviated to some degree. Those degrees are called standard deviations in this type of model, and any score exceeding more than three of them is considered statistically improbable without some type of outside influence, like test tampering. These are the scores The Clarion-Ledger flagged.

The Clarion-Ledger had identified an average of 13 flagged scores for each of the previous five years. Last year alone produced 19 of them.

The six flagged this year were:

  1. Third-grade English scores at Inverness Elementary in Sunflower County
  2. Eighth-grade English at Mize Attendance Center in Smith County
  3. Fourth-grade English at Jonestown Elementary in Coahoma County
  4. Third-grade math at Brown Elementary in Jackson Public Schools
  5. Third-grade English at Charleston Elementary in East Tallahatchie County
  6. Six-grade math at Ackerman Elementary in Choctaw County

Flagged scores at Inverness deviated from the norm by 5.6 points, the highest of any in the state.

The school's principal, Patricia Boyd, stepped down this month, a staff member told The Clarion-Ledger. Sunflower Consolidated Schools Superintendent Debra Dace didn't return a call for comment.

Smith County Superintendent Nick Hillman said eighth-graders at Mize tested well in sixth grade but experienced a "significant fall" the next year. After some staff and scheduling adjustments tailored to the students' needs, Hillman said, scores rose again. They deviated from the norm by 3.9 points, the second-highest in the state.

"We just put accountability back to the teachers," he said.

Such results bucked a statewide trend of lower test scores overall, which state Superintendent of Education Carey Wright blamed on a misalignment of the current assessment to Mississippi's new academic standards.

Some educators admitted their students performed better than expected.

"We were surprised that they went up that much," said East Tallahatchie School District Superintendent Ellis Smith about Charleston Elementary School's third-grade math scores, which deviated from last year's results by 3.4 points.

Smith praised a new principal at Charleston Elementary, and said teachers in his mostly rural, low-income district do their best to educate children despite repeated funding cuts from the state. The kids did well this year, he said, and they're going to celebrate it.

"I can tell you we didn't cheat," he said.

MDE has cracked down on cheating since The Clarion-Ledger in May published a report alleging testing improprieties at Heidelberg Elementary School in Clarksdale.

MDE launched an investigation into those allegations this spring. Wright also said she'll request $1 million from the state to conduct similar probes in other districts.

Clarksdale's most recent MCT2 scores were absent from this week's data release, as were the scores of all other districts participating in the Excellence for All model program. Their results will be released later this year, possibly in October, said MDE spokeswoman Patrice Guilfoyle.

Although he declined to reveal his district's scores, Clarksdale Superintendent Dennis Dupree said at a press conference this month that he's eager for their release. An attorney for Heidelberg Principal Lowanda Tyler-Jones told The Clarion-Ledger the school's scores rose even higher than they had last year.

Both the newspaper and the state flagged Heidelberg last year for statistical improbabilities.

The state began flagging MCT2 scores in 2013 through a partnership with Caveon Test Security, the same company now heading the Clarksdale cheating investigation. Caveon has access to far more detailed data than what's available to the public, which is why it flagged some scores that the newspaper missed and vice-versa.

Caveon had flagged one dozen MCT2 test results last year. MDE notified superintendents with flags and asked them to conduct their own investigations into potential testing misconduct. All but one reported no violations.

MDE hasn't yet released the list of flagged scores from this year's tests, nor have superintendents been notified of flags within their districts, Guilfoyle said.

In a previous interview, Caveon spokesman Steve Addicott said it's common to see test violations plummet after states begin flagging programs.

Coahoma County and Jackson Public school districts both got flagged by the newspaper and the state in 2013, although for different schools than the ones appearing on this year's Clarion-Ledger list.

At JPS, Brown Elementary Principal Serenity Luckett credited a scheduling shift that rotates morning math and language instruction to target students at their most alert time. Previously, the school taught language only in the morning and math only in the afternoon.

Luckett also said her third-graders entered school academically strong as kindergarteners and maintained that level of achievement, as shown by their first statewide assessment.

Also academically strong throughout their academic careers have been last year's fourth-graders at Jonestown Elementary in Coahoma County, said Superintendent Pauline Rhodes. When paired with experienced teachers and a good principal, she said, students can achieve even statistically improbable scores.

"We're still not finished looking at everything," Rhodes said, "but from what we can tell, so far, we feel like these are the things that helped our school to increase."

Contact Emily Le Coz at elecoz@jackson.gannett.com or (601) 961-7249. Follow @emily_lecoz on Twitter.