Are Mississippi Senate candidates, pundits 'misunderestimating' Chris McDaniel?

Geoff Pender
Mississippi Clarion Ledger

Former President George W. Bush — who was known to occasionally invent a word — once said, "They misunderestimated me."

Republican U.S. Senate candidate Chris McDaniel could say the same at this point of state and national politicos and perhaps his opponents.

State and national pundits have recently opined that Democratic challenger Mike Espy's best, perhaps only, shot at a red-state upset is for McDaniel to be his opponent in a runoff. Others have written McDaniel off over a dearth of campaign donations and outside big-money support.

Temporarily appointed Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith is refusing to participate in a debate — saying her Senate schedule is too hectic. Such a dismissive move would be expected of an incumbent sitting pretty on a large lead against weak opposition — why give underwater opponents a shot at gaining ground? But Hyde-Smith isn't a true incumbent, and she's certainly not sitting on such a lead at this point. She's giving McDaniel (and Espy) fuel.

Supporters of Republican State Sen. Chris McDaniel, R-Ellisville, a candidate in a special election to fill the final two years of a term started by Republican U.S. Sen. Thad Cochran of Mississippi, fill seats at the pavilion at Founders Square before his speech Thursday , Aug. 2, 2018, at one of the biggest political events of the year in the state, the Neshoba County Fair, in Philadelphia, Miss.

One columnist recently said McDaniel's "star is fading" and that for Espy to have a shot, McDaniel "must poll enough votes to finish third and force a runoff between Hyde-Smith, who is likely to finish first, and Espy, who is likely to finish second."

Hold on a minute. I don't believe those chickens have hatched yet. Misunderestimating McDaniel at this point could prove to be very bad strat-e-gery, to use another Bushism.

They're misunderestimating the amount of work McDaniel puts into his field game. He's one of the hardest campaigning Mississippi politicians to ever kiss a baby or shake a hand. McDaniel will be out-spent, but he won't be outworked. 

And they're misunderestimating the passion and fervor — and perhaps the size — of his base (sometimes, of course, they may be a bit too fervent).

In a special, mid-term election with a likely runoff on the Tuesday after Thanksgiving, getting voters to turn out will be the name of the game. Having a base of voters who chew nails and spit tacks is an advantage. And they appear to just get more fired up when he says things that appear daft, mean, misogynist or racist to others — reminiscent of another current politician.

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Most of a smattering of polling since spring has shown McDaniel trailing at third in the race. But some of that polling's veracity was dubious and McDaniel says it was just wrong. It should be noted that neither Hyde-Smith's nor Espy's campaigns or support groups have publicly released any polling recently. I'm certain they've done some, but I'm guessing it doesn't show either candidate out far enough from McDaniel or each other to be crowing about.

"We're ahead," McDaniel flat-out told me last week. "... The press keeps citing this same faulty poll. It was junk. What we are seeing 55 days out is that we are in a much better position than we were in 2014 (when he nearly toppled Sen. Thad Cochran). We have the crowds. We have the energy. We dominate social media and we have an incredible grassroots organization."

As for field organization, McDaniel said he's got an active organization of about 5,000 people ready to help him call, knock doors and get out the vote. The previous sentence should cause a little indigestion for other campaign leaders.

Chris McDaniel pregame at the Neshoba County Fair political stump rally. Thursday, Aug. 2, 2018.

"What a lot of people are missing is, they're just assuming I'm not doing anything if I'm not on TV," McDaniel said. "Politics has changed dramatically in the last few years and a lot of people are playing by the old rules. It's about direct contact, on social media, person to person or with the candidate. That's the game we feel like we are executing wonderfully. I spend all my time around the people."

Now, saying TV ads aren't so important in a U.S. Senate race sounds like something a politician would say when his campaign is too broke to air TV ads. But McDaniel has essentially been campaigning statewide nonstop since 2013 and at this point he doesn't need to buy name recognition. 

McDaniel is hitting eight to 10 campaign events a week, and a spokesman said he already has events booked through October.

Austin Barbour, a state and national Republican consultant and supporter of Hyde-Smith said, "I absolutely think Chris McDaniel and his campaign effort must be taken very seriously."

"There is no question he has a vocal base of support in Mississippi that will show up to vote for him on election day — rain, snow, sun or shine they will show up for him," Barbour said.

Hyde-Smith campaign manager Jordan Russell said, "Our campaign takes Chris very seriously and we are working around the clock to make sure Cindy Hyde-Smith is the winning candidate on election day. We take all opponents seriously."

McDaniel is running his campaign as if it was in a GOP primary — focusing on his base and hammering away at Republican opponent Hyde-Smith. He does not appear to be trying to bring establishment or moderate voters into his fold or operate a general-election type operation but instead just trying to fire up his base. Time, and voting will tell if this is sound strategy and just how big his base is these days.

But McDaniel said the "establishment" has a history of underestimating him.

"It's remarkable that the establishment is taking comfort in even this false polling," he said. "Considering they've spent $15 million against me the last few years, to take comfort in 10 points — even though it's not true — is remarkable.

"I've been underestimated my whole career," McDaniel said. "I love being the underdog. It motivates me, my friends, my family and my base.

"There's going to be a lot of surprised people in November."

Political Editor Geoff Pender