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Magnolia Political Report #60
November 18, 2004
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Special Session; Take 3
Lawmakers were back in the capitol this week for the third special session of the year – this time to consider a $108 million economic development package for Northrop Grumman, Viking Range, the state’s military bases, several other manufacturers and several state bond programs. Almost as soon as the regular session ended, legislators were called back to the capitol to consider tort reform and voter ID. Governor Barbour also called a special session in June to reauthorize the Department of Human Services.

With several thousand jobs on the line, the Senate acted quickly to adopt the bond package Governor Barbour put in the call for the special session (special session are limited to only the items the Governor puts in the call). The House has been a different story.

Relations between Governor Barbour and the Senate on one side and the House on the other have been downright frosty. As of press time, the House had not acted on the bond proposal.

The day after the special session convened, the House tried to adjourn “sine die,” which would have ended the special session. The vote came up short, leaving the House at an impasse that has so far lasted almost two weeks.

Speaker McCoy complained before the session that Barbour should have waited until the regular session to pass the bond package. In a news release, McCoy said, “We have given Northrop Grumman our word that we will take care of their bond needs in the first few days of the 2005 session. We intend to fulfill that commitment, but it is a waste of money to do it now.”

McCoy has also taken a fiscally conservative posture as another reason not to consider the bond bill, saying the governor and state treasurer have warned against taking on too much bond debt. The stance represents a change of heart for McCoy, who was a key figure in pushing through over $1.2 billion in bond indebtedness during his four-year tenure as the House Ways and Means Committee.

In testimony to the House Ways and Means Committee on Tuesday, November 9th, Northrop Grumman CEO Philip Dur stated he had to meet with Northrop Grumman’s national board on November 16th to plan capital expenditures for next year. Dur said the state not keeping its word on the project would jeopardize jobs. "On Nov. 16, the game's over," said Dur. "I think the real victim would be the state of Mississippi and the people who will suffer from loss of money and loss of jobs."

Dur reminded lawmakers that the state had made a commitment to provide the state’s largest employer $48 million a year for a three-year period. The state made good on the first year, but has yet to fund years two or three. Northrop Grumman had planned to match the money 2 to 1. When the House failed to act by the time Northrop held its board meeting this week, Northrop Grumman voted not to include the planned expansion at its Mississippi facility in its capital budget for next year.

On the day Grumman’s board was meeting, Governor Barbour and Lt. Gov. Tuck held a press conference in the capitol rotunda urging the House to act. Both Barbour and Tuck appeared visibly angry and frustrated with the House’s lack of action. Barbour threw down the gauntlet, laying the blame for the potential loss of 3,500 jobs squarely at the feet of the leadership of the House.

It remains to be seen whether or not the House will pass a bond bill in the special session. The outcome will be watched with interest because it may foreshadow the course of the 2005 regular session.

Special Votes
There have been two votes of note in the House during the special session. A handful of Democrats and Republicans have broken ranks with their respective parties on each vote. For Republicans, the first vote was viewed more critically. For Democrats, the second vote viewed more critically because it was a test of the Speaker’s authority. You can bet Democrats who broke ranks on the second vote aren’t high on Speaker McCoy’s Christmas card list.

The first was a motion to adjourn “sine die” the day after the session convened. Had the motion passed, the House would have left town without acting on the economic development package Governor Barbour had called the legislature to Jackson to consider.

The motion to adjourn sine die failed 56 to 62. Eighteen Democrats broke ranks with the Speaker, who supported adjourning, to defeat the motion. Democrats defecting from Speaker McCoy were: Reps. Sid Bondurant, Scott Bounds, Billy Broomfield, Charlie Capps, Linda Coleman, Chuck Espy, Joey Hudson, Warner McBride, Leonard Morris, Billy Nicholson, Deryk Parker, Randall Patterson, Bubba Pierce, Margaret Rogers, Bobby Shows, Jeff Smith, Mary Ann Stevens and Robert Earl Vince.

One lone Republican, Rep. Steve Horne of Meridian, broke ranks with the Governor to join Speaker McCoy in trying to end the special session without considering the economic development bond package.

The second vote, which came on the second Wednesday of the session, would have circumvented the House Ways and Means Committee, where the bond bill has been stalled for nearly two weeks, by bringing the measure directly to the floor of the House. The rarely used procedure fell well short of the two-thirds vote needed for passage – 41 to 68. Seven Republicans and six Democrats broke ranks with their parties on the vote.

Republican Reps. Steve Horne, Eric Robinson, Ray Rogers, Clint Rotenberry, Jessica Upshaw, Tom Weathersby and Tommy Woods voted to not pull the bill from the Ways and Means Committee. Democrat Reps. Tracy Arrinder, Scott Bounds, Charlie Capps, Billy Nicholson, Randall Patterson and Margaret Rogers voted to pull the bill from committee.

Just before the vote to pull the bill from committee, Rep. Bennett Malone made an emotional pitch for fairness on the House floor. The House veteran said the system in the House is not working fairly and that it has denied members a voice. Malone pointedly reminded members that he was one of the original 26 rebels who eventually overthrew Speaker Buddie Newman for ruling the House with an iron fist. Even so, Malone voted to leave the bill in the Ways and Means Committee.

Who’s In The Doghouse?
Several Democrats have voted against Speaker McCoy on both important votes this session. Reps. Scott Bounds, Charlie Capps, Billy Nicholson, Randall Patterson and Margaret Rogers are Democrats who have opposed the Speaker twice in the special session. One Republican, Rep. Steve Horne, has voted against Governor Barbour on both votes.

By George, Bush Carries Mississippi
Sixty percent of Mississippians supported President George W. Bush in his bid for re-election. The Magnolia State hasn’t supported a Democrat for president since Jimmy Carter carried the state in 1976. Despite some pundits’ predictions that Kerry had made inroads in Mississippi, Bush cruised to a convincing win.

The President carried 57 counties, receiving his largest share of the vote in Lamar County (80 percent), a suburb community of Hattiesburg. Bush did well in other suburban counties: 72 percent in DeSoto County and 76 in Rankin County.

Bush also rolled up huge totals in many of the state’s more rural counties: 78 percent in George and Greene Counties; 76 percent in Pearl River, Pontotoc and Smith Counties; 73 percent in Union and Webster Counties. With the exception of Pearl River County, Democrats still dominate local election in these rural counties. However, their overwhelming Republican voting tendency in nation elections is a good hint they will be in the next wave of Mississippi counties that changeover to GOP dominance.

Senator John Kerry carried 25 counties in the state, rolling-up his largest margins in the Mississippi Delta and Noxubee County (72 percent). Almost 82 percent of Claiborne and Jefferson County voters preferred Kerry to President Bush. Kerry garnered 76 percent of the vote in Holmes County, 70 percent in Tunica County, 65 percent in Bolivar and Humphreys Counties and 62 percent in Leflore County.

Republicans can take comfort in the fact that demographic trends point to a strengthening GOP. There are 2 metropolitan areas in Mississippi and 22 micropolitan areas. Bush was strong in both the state’s metropolitan regions (Copiah, Hinds, Rankin, Madison and Simpson Counties in Central Mississippi and the suburb counties around Memphis in North Mississippi – DeSoto, Marshall, Tate and Tunica). Bush carried 16 of 22 micropolitan regions. Four of the six that Kerry won lost population between 1990 and 2000 while the 16 micropolitan areas Bush won represented the fastest growing regions of the state.

What Gender Gap?
There weren’t many surprises in the exit polls conducted in Mississippi on Election Day, but a few things stood out. White females were among President Bush’s strongest supporters in the Magnolia State, preferring Bush to Kerry by an 89 – 10 margin. White females even edged-out white, born-again evangelical Christians, who supported Bush over Kerry 88 – 12. White males voted for Bush over Kerry by 81 to 18 percent.

Exit polls showed the President winning in Mississippi by a comfortable 59 to 40 percent margin, almost exactly reflecting the 60 to 40 percent final vote tally.

Overall, 53 percent of Mississippi voters in the ’04 election were women. Sixty-five percent of voters where white; 34 percent black and 1 percent other. Thirty-eight percent of the voters described themselves as Democrats; 47 percent as Republicans and 15 percent as independents or something else. Seventeen percent described themselves as liberal; 36 percent moderate and 46 percent conservative.

In 2004, 20 percent of Mississippi voters lived in the suburbs. They voted for Bush 59 – 41. Sixty-seven percent were in small cities or rural areas. They supported Bush by a 64 – 36 margin.

Whites and blacks were almost exactly the opposite of each other in their voting preferences. Bush won whites 85 – 14. Blacks preferred Kerry 90 – 10. Though President Bush lost the black vote by a lopsided margin, he performed better among blacks than most Republicans by several percentage points.

Non-white males supported Kerry 85 – 14. Non-white females supported Kerry by an even stronger margin, 89 – 10. Black and white females showed more monolithic support for their candidates than males. When all was said and done, Bush carried males and females by the exact same margin – 59 to 40.

Judging by the exit polls, a preference for President Bush was highly correlated with age. President Bush carried every age group except 18 – 29 year olds, which Senator Kerry won 63 – 37 (the demographic made up 20 percent of voters). Bush carried voters over 65 by 75 – 25 percent (13 percent of total voters). He won voters over 60 by a 69 –30 margin (they comprised 23 percent of voters). The President carried 45 to 59 year olds 67 – 33 and won 30 – 44 year olds 58 – 42 (both age groups each represented 29 percent of voters).

In national exit polls, moral values were cited by 22 percent of voters as the most important issue in the election. Bush carried these voters by a wide margin. In Mississippi, Bush carried white Protestants by 87 to 13 percent. Seventy-seven percent of voters in Mississippi on Election Day were identified as white Protestants. Catholics comprised 10 percent of Mississippi voters. Though Kerry is Catholic and Bush is Methodist, Catholics in Mississippi preferred Bush by a slightly larger margin than white Protestants – 87 to 12 percent.

President Bush’s 60 – 40 winning margin almost exactly matched his job approval rating and the approval or disapproval of his decision to go to war in Iraq. His job approval and approval of the war in Iraq both stood at 60 percent approving and 38 percent disapproving.

Mississippi Loves Incumbents
Congress
Mississippi’s four incumbent congressmen all cruised to relatively easy re-election victories. The state’s two Republicans – Rep. Roger Wicker and Rep. Chip Pickering – only had nominal, third party opposition. Both received about 80 percent of the vote in their re-election contest.

Mississippi’s two Democrat congressmen, Rep. Bennie Thompson and Rep. Gene Taylor, both faced Republican opposition. Neither opponent seemed to scratch though. Thompson won with 58 percent of the vote, though he did lose 7 counties in his district. Taylor was re-elected with 65 percent of the vote in his South Mississippi district.

Republicans expanded their majorities in the U.S. Senate and the House of Representatives. The Republican majority in the Senate means Senator Thad Cochran will move into the powerful chairmanship of the Appropriations Committee when the 109th Congress is sworn-in next January. On the other side of the Hill, Rep. Roger Wicker will become a “cardinal” on the House Appropriations Committee, guaranteeing him a slot as a subcommittee chairman.

Supreme Court
In a four-candidate race, Justice James Graves narrowly missed winning outright on Election Day. Graves soundly defeated Circuit Court Judge Samac Richardson when they ran it off on November 16th, winning by a 56 to 44 percent margin.

Judging by the final numbers, the Magnolia Report poll and anecdotal evidence, a good number of Republicans supported Graves. In fact, an analysis of three big Republican counties in the district, Madison, Lauderdale and Rankin, Graves received about ten percent of his total vote from Bush supporters. In the general election, Graves ran 1,142 votes ahead of Kerry in Lauderdale County; 2,346 ahead of Kerry in Madison County; and 2,506 ahead in Rankin County. Almost all of these voters represent people who voted for Bush and Graves.

Though Graves got 48 percent in the general election, the run-off was up for grabs. Even though Graves did a good job cutting in a natural constituency for Richardson, with noting else significant on the ballot, whoever could motivate and turnout their voters would win. Graves obviously did the better job, putting a good message on TV and smartly investing in a ground game to turn out his vote.

Voters Say “I Do” To Gay Marriage Ban
Mississippi voters resoundingly approved a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage in the Magnolia State. Passage of the amendment was never in doubt – the only question was how high approval would climb. In the end, 86 percent of voters said no to gay marriage in Mississippi. It was the highest percentage in the country (ten other states held similar referendums). It might have been even higher if not for confusing wording on the ballot – a yes meant no to gay marriage; a no meant yes.

Dems Caucus
Democrats in the Mississippi House of Representatives broke new ground in the state when they caucused on November 1st. The move further intensifies the partisan split that has developed in the House since the retirement of former Speaker Tim Ford. The move gives House Democrats a mechanism to enforce some party discipline on its members.

In conjunction with the caucus, the Dems have set up a PAC to raise funds for members and presumably challengers. After the Democrats organized their caucus at the capitol, they retired to Hal and Mal’s Restaurant and Brewery in downtown Jackson where they raised money for their new PAC and rallied behind Senator John Kerry’s bid for President.

Much has been made about the increased partisanship in the legislature and state government in general. The conventional wisdom is that partisanship is bad for the state and that members should be more about doing what is right for Mississippi than gaining a partisan advantage.

The Magnolia Report believes the rise in partisanship is a good thing. When mature, it will put an end to any vestiges of the old-boy network that has often dominated legislative politics. It also will add much needed accountability to state government. Stronger, more robust political parties will keep an eye on each other, acting as watchdogs for state government.

Rumor Mill
We hear a lot of rumors at the Magnolia Report, which we’re happy to pass along to our readers. Use your on judgment about their veracity, and send us some scoop (scoop@magnoliareport.com) if you hear something good.

www.magnoliareport.com/RumorMill2004.htm

Nielsen Cochran is taking a look at running for lieutenant governor.

Rep. Jamie Franks will run for lieutenant governor.

Rep. Steve Holland might run for mayor of Tupelo.

Add former Amy Tuck chief of staff Kelly Hardwick’s name to the list of Republicans running for Secretary of State. State Senator Richard White supposedly is interested. Rumors have also circulated around Jackson the Lt. Gov. Amy Tuck may run for the seat when her term as lieutenant governor is up in 2007. Tuck, who is in her second term, is term limited from running for lieutenant governor again.

New On The Web

The Mississippi Republican Party has recently posted a Senate scorecard, which rates Senators on votes the party deems important. Earlier this year, the GOP posted a House scorecard.

First Lady Marsha Barbour has a new web site located at www.marshabarbour.com. The page features photos, press releases and initiatives from the First Lady.

Mississippians in Battleground States
With the outcome all but certain at home, a handful of Mississippians deployed to battleground states to help their preferred presidential candidate. Ward Baker, the political director at the Mississippi Republican Party, spent a month in Palm Beach County, Florida organizing the 72 Hour Plan for the Republican National Committee. Ten or so other Mississippians joined Baker in Palm Beach County the last week of the campaign to help with the turnout effort.

Just down the road in Dade County (Miami), Southaven resident Ronald Tyree was spending his week knocking on doors on behalf of the Kerry campaign. Democratic activist Cindy Ayers-Elliott, who was a candidate for State Treasurer last year, traveled to Ohio for Kerry.

Lawyers got in on the action too. Rankin County lawyer Gregg Harper initially traveled to Florida for the Bush campaign but was quickly redeployed to Ohio where he was an observer of early presidential voting on behalf of the President’s campaign. Eupora attorney Henry Ross volunteered his legal services for the Bush campaign in Palm Beach County.

New Paper Debuts in Jackson Area
Publisher Jack Criss recently debut the metro area's only exclusive business publication called the Metro Business Chronicle. The publication covers Hinds, Rankin, Madison and Copiah Counties business and political news. The current issue can be viewed at www.metrochronicle.com.

Movers & Shakers
Keelan Sanders has been promoted to the job of executive director of the Mississippi Democratic Party.

The Graves campaign was campaign manager Jackie Richmond's first job in politics. A native of McComb, Richmond had worked for years in graphic design and marketing in Chicago and New Orleans, but returned home to Mississippi with the idea of becoming politically involved. She started work on the Graves campaign in February and quickly assembled a staff of Mississippi veterans. Her aptitude for the nuances of judicial races won her the position of campaign manager against several notable candidates. The final numbers in the Graves race outpaced all expectations – in turns of percentage won, voter turnout in the critical run-off, and money raised. Richmond is off to a great start in Mississippi politics.

Congressman Chip Pickering’s chief of staff, Susan Butler and her husband Mike welcomed Edward Graham Butler to the world on September 1st. Baby Butler weighed in at 8lbs 6ozs and is the couple's second child.

Mark and Rhonda Keenum are the proud parents of triplets. Kathryn Pharr, Everett James and Mary Phillips were born on September 17th. Mark is Senator Thad Cochran’s chief of staff. Rhonda is the Assistant Secretary and Director General of the United States and Foreign Commercial Service at the United States Department of Commerce.

Ken Stribling and his wife, Tiffany, welcomed a son, Frederick Kentmore Stribling, III, on August 9th. Little Kent weighed in at 8 lbs 14 oz and was 20.5 inches long. Ken is a former State Representative from Hinds County who currently works for the Rural Development Administration.

Media consultant Scott Howell continues a great run that began in the 2002 elections. Howell is a regular presence in Mississippi campaigns – having worked for Rep. Chip Pickering, Rep. Roger Wicker, Lt. Gov. candidate Bill Hawks, congressional candidate Delbert Hosemann and State Senator Walter Michel. This year, one of Howell’s candidates, John Thune of South Dakota, knocked off Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle. Howell won a Senate race in South Carolina with Jim DeMent and Governor’s race in Washington with Dino Rossi. He also produced spots for the Bush-Cheney campaign. In 2002, Howell elected three challengers to the Senate, winning victories in Missouri (Senator Jim Talent), Georgia (Senator Saxby Chambliss) and Minnesota (Senator Norm Coleman).

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