****************************************************
Magnolia Political Report #50
January 5, 2004
****************************************************
Inaugural
Activities
House and Senate memberswill be sworn in Tuesday, January
6, at noon. Statewide constitutional officers (except for the Governor)
will be sworn in Thursday, January 8, at 2PM at the State Capitol.
Governor-Elect Haley Barbour will be celebrating his inaugural for six
days. The schedule and a list of performers can be seen by clicking on
the Mississippi's Moment Banner.
Other statewide elected officials hosting events Thursday include:
Lt.
Governor Amy Tuck will hold a prayer service at 10AM at Christ United
Methodist Church and a reception at 6PM at the Crowne Plaza Hotel in Jackson.
Tuck will re-enact her swearing-in Friday, January 9, at Thalia Mara Hall
in Jackson for a group of children.
Attorney
General-Elect Jim Hood will host a public reception from 3-5PM at the
Carroll Gartin Building.
Secretary of State Eric Clark will be holding a small reception at the
Ladner Building after the swearing-in around 3PM.
Treasurer-Elect
Tate Reeves will be holding a reception from 5-7PM at
the Fairview Inn in downtown Jackson.
Chasing
Amy
Though it has largely gone unnoticed except by a handful of insiders and
a few party faithful, the most intriguing political drama in the state
is playing out over the contested Senate District 29 race. At stake is
the closeness of the partisan divide in the Senate and perhaps Lt. Gov.
Amy Tuck ’s political future.
The
race won’t be resolved until the Senate rules on a challenge filed
by State Senator Richard White. Jackson lawyer Dewayne Thomas edged out
White by 104 votes according to the results certified by a 3 to 2 vote
of the Hinds County Election Commission. However, White is challenging
what he terms “illegal ballots” along with several other election
irregularities. According to White, enough illegal ballots were counted
to change the outcome of the election.
The
main controversy stems from hundreds of uninitialed paper ballots that
were eventually counted by the Hinds County Election Commission. In prior
elections, uninitialed ballots haven’t been counted – a practiced
backed up by several Supreme Court decisions and at least two opinions
from Attorney General Mike Moore. However, when asked for an opinion on
this particular election, Moore reversed his position, stating that uninitialed
ballots should be counted.
White
has a good case to make but Thomas can lay claim to being the certified
winner. Fifty-one members of the State Senate will have to sort out the
mess and decide who to seat – or at least order a new election.
The
Democrats’ 26 to 22 partisan edge in the Senate would appear to
give Thomas, the Democrat, the edge. However, Republican Lt. Gov. Amy
Tuck could tip the vote White’s way if she so chooses.
The
contest puts Tuck in an interesting position. As a relatively new Republican,
Tuck still needs to cement her GOP base, many of whom are watching closely
and want her to side with White in the contest. This is the first impression
as an elected Republican Tuck will have with the GOP donors and other
faithful she’ll need to continue her career.
Tuck
has some connections on the other side too though. Two of Tuck’s
closest associates, political consultant Greg Brand and Mississippi Right
to Life Director Sandy Ellard, masterminded Thomas’ campaign.
State
Senator Alice Hardin is also a close Tuck ally and was one of five Democrats
who went on record Monday with the Clarion Ledger saying she’d vote
to seat Thomas. An article Sunday in the Jackson paper noted that Tuck
is likely to reappoint Hardin to chair the Senate Education Committee,
causing some partisan Republicans to wonder why Tuck would reappoint someone
who plans to vote to keep White out of the Senate.
It
will be interesting to see which way Tuck goes in the contest. Both sides
feel their candidate has been wronged. The closeness of the partisan divide
in the Senate has also caused Dems and Republicans to dig in. The smart
money is on the Senate ordering a new election. It will be intriguing
to see the drama play out.
Appointments
(Click on the names below for biographies)
Rusty Fortenberry,
Commissioner of Public Safety
Melvin Maxwell,
Deputy Commissioner of Public Safety
Chris
Epps, Commissioner of the Department of Corrections
Marvin
Curtis, Chief of the Mississippi Highway Patrol
Robert
Latham, Director of the Emergency Management Agency
Harold
Cross, Adjutant General
Court
Notice
Controversial Justice Chuck McRae ended his stormy tenure on the state's
highest court on Monday. McRae was replaced by Jess Dickinson, who beat
McRae and one other candidate in a November 2002 election. Due to an oddity
in Mississippi election law, McRae served a year after he was defeated.
The lag caused a great deal of friction among McRae and several other
justices.
Justice
Bill Waller was named Monday as a presiding justice, replacing the position
held by former Justice McRae.
Rumor
has it that Chief Justice Ed Pittman may step down before the end of his
term, allowing Governor Barbour to make an appointment to the bench.
Quotable
Quotes
"When George Bush was chasing girls at Yale, Wesley
Clark was chasing Viet Cong in Vietnam.'' - Congressman Gene Taylor
during his endorsement of Democratic candidate Wesley Clark
"White
folks in the South who drive pickup trucks with Confederate flag decals
on the back ought to be voting with us and not them...." Democratic
Presidential candidate Howard Dean
Best and worst
of 2003
Top ten political
stories of the year
 1.
Incumbent governor ousted by Barbour juggernaut
2. Mississippi Supreme Court gets a black eye
3. No Moore in the AG’s office
4. Tuck pays high price for campaign loans
5. Blackmon and Anderson make history with Dem nominations
6. Blackmon’s campaign aborted by affidavit challenge
7. Republicans gains changing Mississippi politics
8. Romance in Cleveland - Musgrove flirts with the Fighting Okra
9. Pickering turns down big bucks to stay in Congress
10. Headstart for Haley leads to 'whorehouse' gaff
Campaign Managers
of the Year
A few campaigns stood out over the rest this year in their efficiency
and overall effectiveness. Of all the statewide campaigns, Haley Barbour’s,
Jim Hood’s and Tate Reeves’ campaigns stood apart.
Barbour’s campaign was certainly the most expensive and organized
campaign the state has ever witnessed. With nearly 60 people on staff,
Barbour didn’t let even the smallest details go unattended, and
they covered the state from corner to corner. Barbour’s nephew,
Henry Barbour, went straight from his duties as Chip Pickering’s
campaign manager last year to his uncle’s campaign. The younger
Barbour did an admirable job keeping the organization running at full
steam all year long.
Henry Barbour, along with an all-star team of campaign professionals with
personal ties to Haley, made the right calls on message throughout the
year. They successfully blunted Musgrove’s attacks on Barbour and
got Barbour’s voters energized to go to the polls.
Jim Hood’s campaign was off to a slow start until Hood brought in
veteran Democrat operative Morgan Shands to take over his operation. Once
Shands took over, the whole thing seemed to come together. Shands understands
where to go to build a winning coalition for a successful Democratic campaign,
and he stays focused on putting the pieces into place for a winning effort.
Tate Reeves campaign, which didn’t have a manager until the last
few weeks, was undoubtedly one of the most efficient campaigns of the
year. Many in the media have made much of the race factor in the election
for Treasurer, and maybe their arguments have some validity. However,
their arguments ignore the effectiveness of Reeves as a candidate. He
focused on raising money, developed a successful message for this election
cycle and showed incredible message discipline for a first time candidate.
Reeves focus on what’s important in a campaign –
building an extensive list of contributors – allowed him to greatly
outspend his opponents on TV. His message that the state needed a businessman
not a bureaucrat played well in a year in which a majority of voters believed
the state was on the wrong track. Staying on message allowed him to leverage
his earned media with his paid media.
Media Consultant of the Year
Brad Todd of Todd and Castallanos Creative Group was two for two in the
state this year. Todd handled media for Amy Tuck and Tate Reeves. Last
year, Todd’s work could be seen on behalf of Senator Thad Cochran.
Once Blackmon stumbled by challenging Tuck to sign an affidavit swearing
she had never had an abortion, Tuck’s campaign ads smartly turned
toward capitalizing on Blackmon’s self-inflicted wound. Tuck would
have probably won anyway, but Tuck’s ads did a masterful job of
defining Blackmon as a candidate too radical and unacceptable for Mississippi
voters.
Fletcher and Reilly of Nashville handled media for the ill-fated campaigns
of Barbara Blackmon and Gary Anderson. Blackmon’s :30 second ads
were mediocre. Her 30 minute infomercial was downright bad. Anderson’s
ad was good, though not as memorable as Reeves spots. Anderson also suffered
from having very few points behind his television.
Who’s
in – Who’s out
Four years ago, Democrats celebrated retaking the Governor’s Mansion
after 8 years of Republican control. With the election of Ronnie Musgrove
and of Amy Tuck, and the retention of strong majorities in the House and
Senate, Democrats had reason to celebrate. After the elections this year,
Democrats are licking their wounds and trying to figure out what went
wrong. Their one saving grace is the likely election of Billy McCoy as
the next Speaker of the House. McCoy is a populist North Mississippi Democrat
who is quite to the left of Haley Barbour, Amy Tuck and a conservative
State Senate.
The “outs” can take some solace in McCoy’s election,
but with 46 Republicans in the House, it remains to be seen how far out
of tune the House will be with a the otherwise conservative bent of the
state’s leaders.
Who’s In:
MMA
Realtors
NFIB
Jim Roberts
Brad Dye
Who’s Out:
After years of faring well in state politics, trial lawyers’
fortunes took a downturn last year when they lost almost every judicial
election they “played in.” The rout was nearly completed this
year when trial lawyer candidates lost elections for governor, lt. governor
and a number of senate seats. They’ll look to McCoy to hold up legislation
unfavorable to their cause.
Mississippi Economic Council Director Blake Wilson has been a close friend
and confidant of Governor Musgrove dating back to his days as lieutenant
governor. Republicans accused Wilson of leaning toward Musgrove in the
1999 election, but since Musgrove emerged victorious, nothing came of
it.
Wilson slighted the governor-elect earlier this year at a forum hosted
by MEC when he invited Barbour’s primary opponent to debate but
didn’t include any of Musgrove’s primary opponents. Wilson
tried to save face after the election by attending several GOP victory
parties and by sending out a press release commending Barbour on choosing
his transition team. It remains to be seen if he attempts will be enough
to get him out of the doghouse with the Barbour administration.
Earlier this year, Randy Kelley at the Three Rivers Planning and Development
District raised eyebrows when the taxpayer funded PDD he heads hosted
three Democrat candidates at an official event. Kelley didn’t help
his cause with a last minute contribution to the campaign of Governor
Musgrove.
It was no big suprise that the Mississippi Association of Educators (MAE)
supported Ronnie Musgrove over Haley Barbour. However it did raise eyebrows
that they refused to endorse a candidate in the Lt. Governor's race. Four
years ago, MAE took the unprecedented step of endorsing Republican Bill
Hawks over Democrat Amy Tuck. MAE's snub of Tuck again this year puts
them in an even deeper hole in the State Senate.
Quotable quote
of the Year
“When Mississippi wakes up in the morning Barbara Blackmon will
be Lt. Governor” - Lt. Governor candidate Barbara Blackmon at her
election party
|
