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Magnolia Political Report #45
August 4, 2003

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Election Day
The first phase of the 2003 election season ends tomorrow with the Democrat and Republican primaries. In races where no one receives a majority, party nominees will be decided in August 26th run-off elections.

Statewide, major party nominees for Governor, Attorney General, Secretary of State, Auditor, and Insurance Commissioner are effectively decided. Though both Ronnie Musgrove and Haley Barbour have opposition in their respective primaries, their nominations are all but foregone conclusions.

The most high-profile statewide primary is the Democratic Party’s nomination for lieutenant governor. Though it is a three person race, the contest is essentially between State Senator Barbara Blackmon and former Judge Jim Roberts to see who will face GOP incumbent Amy Tuck in the fall. The other African American candidate in the race, Troy Brown, could play the spoiler for Blackmon if she’s close to getting 50 percent on August 5th.

Three Democrats and three Republicans are fighting for their respective party nominations for Treasurer. The Democrats are almost certainly heading for a run-off, and it is probable that the Republicans will too.

On the Democrat side, former State Fiscal Officer Gary Anderson appears to be leading the pack. He’s being challenged by State Senator Rob Smith and Jackson banker Cindy Ayers-Elliott. Other than signs dotting highways from one end of the state to the other, Smith hasn’t had much campaign presence. Anderson and Ayers-Elliott have both out raised and spent more than Smith, but since both are African American, they may split the black vote, allowing Smith to sneak into a run-off.

The Republican candidates in the race for Treasurer are former Transportation Commissioner Wayne Burkes, State Representative Andrew Ketchings and Trustmark banker Tate Reeves. Reeves has out raised the other five candidates in the race combined, and has spent heavily on TV, radio and direct mail. He also has deep roots in GOP vote-rich Rankin County. Reeves should be the favorite to lead the ticket Tuesday, but whether he can get over 50 percent remains to be seen.

Both other candidates have their relative strengths. Burkes has a lot of name ID and goodwill left over from his 30 years in public office. Ketchings is well-liked among Republican Party activists for his solid GOP voting record in the House, but the Natchez native suffers from not having a large primary base to draw from.
In Democrat primaries for Lieutenant Governor and Treasurer, primary turnout may be decisive. Turnout in the GOP primary will also affect the race for State Treasurer – with a higher turnout probably benefiting Reeves, who has a much stronger media presence than the other two candidates.

Look to the last two statewide elections as benchmarks for Tuesday night. In 1995, a year in which Governor Kirk Fordice had only token opposition, 130,925 Republicans turned out to vote while 514,649 Democrats voted. In a large gubernatorial field four years later, 153,142 GOP voters went to the polls and 545,555 Democrats turned-out.


Judicial Investigation
The biggest buzz in political circles lately has centered around the judicial probe being conducted by U.S. Attorney Dunn Lampton. In a late Friday afternoon bombshell, Lampton indicted sitting Supreme Court Justice Oliver Diaz, his wife Jennifer, former Circuit Court Judge John Whitfield and former Chancery Court Judge Wes Teel. Gulf Coast lawyer Paul Minor, the son of columnist Bill Minor, was also indicted. Much of the allegations center around supposed payments Minor made to the judges to influence their decisions from the bench.

The Mississippi Supreme Court voted 7-1 to give Diaz paid leave and the case is ongoing. Justice Chuck McRae was the lone dissenter.

According to newspaper sources, more indictments, possibly centering on illegalities stemming from lawsuits in Jefferson County, may be handed down in the case.
Judicial Indictments

State and national Democrats are crying foul at the move, claiming it is a Bush Administration attempt to chill trial lawyer contributions to their candidates. However, Lampton is sticking to his guns. His 34 page indictment spelled out a compelling case that could mean stiff fines and long jail times for those involved.


Musgrove Announcement

Rumors were flying around the state in February that Governor Ronnie Musgrove was headed to Cleveland to take over the presidency of Delta State University. After a week and a half of speculation, and apparently after the College Board voted against the idea, Musgrove held an impromptu news conference at the capitol to announce he was running for re-election.

The DSU story greatly overshadowed Musgrove’s announcement, so he took another bite at the apple in the final weeks of July.

Though he cited accomplishments such as the recently opened Nissan plant in Canton and the teacher pay raise package passed three years ago, Musgrove wasted no time in attacking probable GOP opponent Haley Barbour during his “official” campaign announcement tour. In stops in Batesville, Greenville, DeSoto County, Tupelo, Meridian, Natchez, Gulfport, Hattiesburg and Jackson, Musgrove charged that Barbour, who has worked in Washington as a lobbyist and President Reagan’s Political Director, is out of touch with Mississippi.

Barbour’s camp countered with a one sentence statement about Musgrove’s charges: “It says a lot about Governor Musgrove’s record that he starts his campaign with negative personal attacks on Haley Barbour and offers no proposals for Mississippi’s future.”

Dueling Mascots Heat it Up in Neshoba
The silly season for Mississippi politics officially began last week at the Neshoba County Fair in the guise of a fat cat and a Fighting Okra.

GOP gubernatorial candidate Haley Barbour was shadowed at his Fair speech last Wednesday by someone in a cat outfit carrying a Washingtonfatcat.com sign. The sign refers to a web site set up by Barbour’s opponent, Jackson lawyer Mitch Tyner, detailing some of Barbour’s alleged work as a lobbyist.

Not to be outdone, the next day, a knock-off of the Delta State University mascot – the Fighting Okra – showed up at the Fair pavilion just as Governor Musgrove took the stage for his Thursday speech. The sign the mascot carried, a knock-off of the popular MasterCard ad campaign, was one of the best of the day: Governor: $101,800. DSU President: $200,000. Losing both: priceless.


Scruggs, Sun Herald Go Toe-to-Toe
Mississippi Super-lawyer Dickie Scruggs isn’t taking the bad press he’s received from the Biloxi Sun Herald lying down. After the Sun Herald edited a statement Scruggs had sent them, Scruggs shot back by taking out full page ads in the Sun Herald and Clarion Ledger. If you’ve got the money, and Scruggs does, it’s a heck of a way to get out your side of the story.

Referring to Sun Herald editor Stan Tyner, Scruggs charges in his ad that “Mississippians have every right to be concerned about Tiner’s Sun Herald and to expect and demand honest and objective journalism from the Sun Herald.”

The same day, the Sun Herald editorialized that it had done nothing wrong.

Scruggs struck back Sunday by again running full page ads in the Sun Herald and Clarion Ledger. This time, Scruggs took an even harder shot at Tiner in an ad headlined “Why is ‘Truth’ a Four Letter Word Where Stan Tiner Comes From?” Toward the end of the ad, Scruggs alleges Tyner was fired from his previous job after only seven months. Tantalizingly, the ad leaves readers with “Stay tuned for the TRUTH about that.” We will.


Blackhawk Rally

Senator Trent Lott has unwittingly given the Blackhawk Political Rally a lot of negative national media attention. However, in the state, it is still viewed as a credible campaign stop by both Democrats and Republicans, white and black. Several hundred people attended the July rally to hear candidates for local office and a handful of state and district-wide candidates.

Click here for pictures from the rally


Man Bites Dog

In a state known for its political lore, the most unbelievable campaign story of the year belongs to Reverend Willie Joe Coleman. Coleman is a GOP hopeful hoping to unseat Democrat incumbent Sampson Jackson in Senate District 32, a district which encompasses Noxubee, Kemper and parts of Lauderdale Counties.

Coleman, like many House and Senate candidates, has been wearing out shoe leather from door-to-door campaigning in his district. Recently, during a stop in Meridian, Coleman had an encounter with a dog that he won’t soon forget.

Standing on a front door step after knocking, Coleman heard a woman inside the house tell him not to panic or move. About that time, according to Coleman, a huge dog came running around the corner. Coleman beat the dog to his car, but unfortunately his back window was rolled down. As the dog clawed its way through the window, Coleman unloaded a .22 pistol on him. The dog and the rest of the story are pure Mississippi political history.


Magnolia Report Polls
What should Congressman Chip Pickering decide concerning the possibility of leaving office?
58.69% - Take the new job
41.31% - Stay in Congress

Should there be a gubernatorial debate this year at the Neshoba County Fair?
68.83% - Yes
19.22% - I don't care
11.95% - No

Are you against candidates taking casino money?
47.57% - No
35.04% - Yes
17.39% - I Don't Care

Do you believe Olivar Diaz and Paul Minor will be convicted?
56.31% - Yes
37.48% - No
6.21% - I Don't Care


Movers and Shakers

Jordan Foster, a Musgrove Staffer, was publicly introduced to Neshoba County Fair crowd last week by Republican candidate Haley Barbour. The introduction was as followed:

“I also want to introduce y’all to one of my new friends who is attending his first Fair. So far, I’ve campaigned in 75 counties, and traveled over 40,000 miles. And Governor Musgrove and the State Democrat Party have paid this young man to follow me almost the entire way, videotaping everything I say. Apparently, honesty is something they think is worth filming. His name is Jordan Foster, he’s from Austin, Texas, and he went to school in Colorado. As usual, he’s right down here in front of me, and I want y’all to give Jordan a warm Neshoba County Fair welcome.”


Charles Walden

State politicos were shocked to learn that District 5 State Senator Charles Walden (Prentiss, Itawamba and parts of Tishomingo Counties) has been diagnosed with cancer. Walden, who is one of the Senate’s most likable members, was narrowly elected in a special election last year to fill the vacancy left by the retirement of John White of Baldwyn.

Walden is carrying on with his campaign, despite his diagnosis. According to Walden, he has beaten cancer before and fully intends to beat it again.


Are Our Voting Booths Secure?

http://avirubin.com/vote.pdf

An independent review of the actual source of the Diebold voting machines brings to light some surprising vulnerabilities.

The analysis shows that the voting system is far below even the most minimal security standards applicable in other contexts. Highlighted are several issues including unauthorized privilege escalation, incorrect use of cryptography, vulnerabilities to network threats, and poor software development processes. For example, common voters, without any insider privileges, can cast unlimited votes without being detected by any mechanisms within the voting terminal.

We may have a lot to fear from these new voting machines.


Endorsement Watch

Tuck gets the nod of small business
In stops in Meridian, Southaven, Columbus, Hattiesburg and Gulfport, the National Federation of Independent Business endorsed the re-election of Lieutenant Governor Amy Tuck. With about 4,000 members in Mississippi, the NFIB is the nation’s largest small business advocacy group. The group cited Tuck’s strong stance on tort reform and her leadership on other pro-business legislation as the reason for their endorsement. NFIB State Director Ron Aldridge, who attended the press conferences with Tuck, said the lieutenant governor had received the highest vote total among NFIB members of any lieutenant governor candidate in the group’s history.

State papers weigh-in

Several papers around the state have made their favorites for statewide offices known.
The Jackson Clarion Ledger picked Ronnie Musgrove and Haley Barbour for Governor, Amy Tuck and Barbara Blackmon for Lieutenant Governor and Gary Anderson and Tate Reeves for Treasurer.

The Hattiesburg American gave its nod to Musgrove and Barbour and picked Rob Smith and Andrew Ketchings for Treasurer.
In Tupelo, the Northeast Mississippi Daily Journal selected Musgrove and Barbour in their respective primaries and Pontotoc native Jim Roberts for Lieutenant Governor. They also endorsed Gary Anderson for Treasurer but curiously did not endorse in the GOP primary for Treasurer. No on has received word from the Daily Journal on why they ignored the Republicans.

Musgrove gets MS Gay and Lesbian Endorsement
Equality Mississippi, the state’s self-proclaimed “Steward of Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual and Transgender Equality”, has endorsed Democrat Governor Ronnie Musgrove’s re-election campaign.

The endorsement is listed on the group’s website: http://www.equalityms.org/intro.html (Scroll down to the bottom right hand corner of the page to see the endorsement with a link to go to Musgrove’s campaign website.)

The group’s Mission Statement is “To conduct public policy research and further public education on the social, political, economic, and health issues affecting Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual and Transgender (LGBT) Mississippians, and to protect the equal rights of all Mississippians.”

Equality Mississippi also endorsed presidential candidate Howard Dean but stated no other person running for state-wide election was worthy of their endorsement.

Equality Mississippi has issued press releases in the past pushing for states to allow lesbian parents to put their names on children’s birth certificates. The website includes a link to the politically correct National Lesbian and Gay Journalists Association’s Stylebook Supplement of Gay, Lesbian, Bisexual, and Transgender Terminology so journalists can find out what “drag performers” are and can be “educated about outdated words, replacing them with more appropriate and accurate terminology.”

Musgrove has also received the endorsement of the teacher’s union, the Mississippi Association of Educators (MAE). Republican candidate Haley Barbour has been endorsed by the Mississippi Manufacturers Association, the Mississippi Medical Association (doctors) political action committee, and the Mississippi’s largest small business group—the National Federation of Independent Business.


On a Final Note

The Magnolia Report would like to thank Danny McKenzie, associate editor of the Tupelo Daily Journal, for reading the bi-weekly report and writing about us in his column. http://www.djournal.com/pages/story.asp?ID=36516&pub=1&div=Opinion


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