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Magnolia Political Report #42
June 3, 2003
Hits this year: 343,715
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Financial Notables
Governor
Over the past reporting period, Haley Barbour outpaced incumbent Governor Ronnie Musgrove four to one. With Barbour spending a little over a million dollars this reporting period, Musgrove still has over a million dollar cash-on-hand advantage over Barbour.

(Raised – Spent = Cash on Hand)

Haley Barbour --  $2,008,166 - $1,099,388 = $1,309,119

Musgrove --  $837,695 - $175,730 = $2,019,943

Lieutenant Governor
Though she got a late start due to the demands of the legislative session, Lt. Governor Amy Tuck outpaced her nearest rival nearly two-to-one in campaign fundraising.  State Senator Barbara Blackmon led all Democratic candidates, raising about $220,000 more than her closest challenger in the money race.  Former gubernatorial candidate Jim Roberts of Pontotoc turned some heads with his report – not because he posted big numbers, but because he raised only about $28,000 -- $5,000 of which came after the filing deadline had passed.  Second-time LG candidate Troy Brown reported no contributions or expenditures for the period.

(Raised - Cash on Hand)

Amy Tuck  -- $450,406 - $151,484 = $827,160

Barbara Blackmon --  $241,586 - 82,050 = $121,585

Jim Roberts --  $27,900 - $6,433 = $21,466

Troy Brown  -- $0 on hand

Treasurer
GOP State Treasurer candidate Tate Reeves got a lot of attention when he reported raising more money than all five of the other Treasurer candidates combined.  Democratic hopeful Gary Anderson raised more than his other two primary opponents combined.  State Senator Rob Smith reported the least of all the six candidates in the race, showing only $801 in his campaign warchest heading into the second reporting period of the year.

(Raised - Cash on Hand)

Tate Reeves --  $103,744 - $8,094 = $95,650

Gary Anderson  -- $64,289 - $1,963 = $62,325

Rob Smith  -- $4,022 - 3,221 = $801 ($3672 personal donations)

Northern District Transportation Commissioner
With longtime Highway Commissioner Zack Stewart retiring, the Northern District Transportation Comissioner’s race is the most competitive race of its kind in the state. Though it is a long road to Election Day, DeSoto County Supervisor John Caldwell and State Senator Bill Minor seem to be in the driver’s seats of their respective primaries. Caldwell has raised over $90,000 for his run, though he has spent much of it early. For the period, Minor and Caldwell were nearly even in their fundraising totals.

(Raised - Cash on Hand)

John Caldwell  -- $20,584 - $38,607 = $39,488

Bill Minor  -- $19,400 - $29,960 = $12,540

State Senate
Former Congressman Roger Wicker staffer Merle Flowers out-raised all Senate candidates – incumbents and challengers.  In fact, Flowers raised so much money that he scared away all comers for the newly created Senate District 19 seat in DeSoto County – a nearly unprecedented feat.  Political newcomer Chris Brown, who is challenging State Senator Hob Bryan, drew attention by raising a little over $10,000 – which is more than many challengers and incumbents raised during the period.

Former Oxford Mayor Pat Lamar, who is challenging incumbent Senator Gray Tollison, looks to be in the process of amassing a significant campaign warchest.

In open seats, Senate District 35 candidate Perry Lee and Senate District 11 candidate Joe Dulaney greatly outraised their respective rivals.

(Raised - Cash on Hand)

Merle Flowers $90,320 - $77,073

Pat Lamar -- $37,264 - $25,360

Travis Little -- $36,250 - $55,169

Perry Lee -- $18,037 - $13,975

Joe Dulaney -- $17,650 - $9551

Videt Carmichael -- $16,824 - $24,107

Chris Brown -- $10,384 - $8,687

House Candidates
Having raised over $50,000, House District 64 challenger Joe Nosef was the champion fundraiser among House candidates in the first reporting period. Speaker of the House hopeful Billy McCoy, who doesn’t raise PAC money and has a competitive race against Prentiss County physician George Waddell, took out a $10,000 loan to fund the early part of his campaign. Mark Baker has pulled out ahead not only in fundraising but organization as well.

(Raised - Cash on Hand)

Joe Nosef -- $50,210 - $45,192

Virginia Carter Carlton -- $16,366 - 15,014

Billy McCoy -- $16,345 - $10,991 ($10,000 loan)

Mark Baker $15,484 - $9,413

Driving Mike Moore
Attorney General Mike Moore raised eyebrows earlier this month when he dropped-off tobacco lawyer Dickie Scruggs at his testimony to a grand jury looking into questionable loans to several state court judges. Scruggs is a key figure in the probe that involves at least one Mississippi Supreme Court Justice, Oliver Diaz, Jr. Moore has given conflicting statements about his office’s involvement in the investigation, so the car ride with Scruggs just before Scruggs testified before the Grand Jury drew the attention of the Biloxi Sun Herald.

J.C. Watts – Mark Warner
Last week, both Democrats and Republicans gathered for fundraisers for their respective parties. Democrats held their 22nd annual Jefferson-Jackson-Hamer Day Dinner Saturday night in Jackson. Virginia Democratic Governor Mark Warner headlined one of the Party’s major fundraisers of the year. Rankin County Republicans gathered in Jackson last Thursday night to honor Congressman Chip Pickering. Former Congressman J.C. Watts headlined the event which drew over 600 people.

A piano bench took center stage at the Democratic Party's fundraiser with Party chairman Rickey Cole holding up a broken piano bench and declaring it the "first annual piano bench award" in honor of Republican gubernatorial candidate Haley Barbour. (see picture below)

Early Departures
Speculation continues to mount that State Treasurer Marshall Bennett will make an early exit from office before his term expires next January. Rumors in Jackson speculate that Bennett could leave as early as the end of June. State Director of Finance Administration Gary Anderson announced that he will be leaving his position to focus full-time on his run for State Treasurer. Wayne Burkes resigned from the Federal Surface Transportation Board to focus all of his energy on his run for State Treasurer.

Robert Rohrlack, Musgrove’s second Economic Development Chief, is leaving just days after the 1.4 billion dollar Nissan plant celebrated it’s first car rolling off the assembly line in Canton, Mississippi. Word on the street is that Musgrove and Rohrlack were never impressed with each other’s work. Musgrove immediately announced that he would be replacing Rohrlack with Steve Hale, former Senatobia Mayor and current MDA Chief of Staff.

Battle of the Polls
Lt. Governor Candidate Jim Roberts was in the field May 21-22 and May 27-29 conducting a survey on his chances of winning the Democratic nomination. Undecided led the contest with 48%, trailed by Roberts with 35%, Blackmon with 15%, and Troy Brown with 3%. Roberts poll was conducted Lauer a Maryland based polling firm.

When word of Roberts poll leaked out, Blackmon released her own survey taken May 15-22 of 800 likely primary voters from across the state. Blackmon’s poll showed her with 23% of the vote, followed by Roberts with 12%, and Brown with 10%. In a head to head match-up with just Roberts Blackmon led by 10 points (31%-21%). Blackmon’s poll was conducted by Washington D.C. pollsters Penn Schoen & Berland.


Magnolia Report Poll
Results reflect votes made by visitors to MagnoliaReport.com and are not scientific.

If the Republican Primary for House District 64 were held today, who would win?
Joe Nosef       73%
Bill Denny       27%
(581 Votes)

 

If the Democratic Primary for President were held today, who would win?
Al Sharpton                   33%
Sen. John Edwards        22%
Sen. John Kerry             14%
Sen. Joe Lieberman       13%
Sen. Bob Graham          10%
Rep. Dick Gephardt         8%
(370 Votes)

If the Republican Primary for Agriculture Commissioner were held today, who would win?
Roger Crowder               46%
Kyle Magee                   31%
Max Phillips                  20%
Fred Smith                    3%
(291 Votes)


Quotable Quotes
From a banner trailing behind an airplane flying over the grand opening of Nissan last week:  “Thanks Trent Lott for Bringing Nissan”.

Here’s Your Sign
Several Barbara Blackmon and Mitch Tyner billboards have popped up around the state. The most notable is a “Blackmon for Lt. Governor” billboard in front of Lt. Governor Amy Tuck’s statewide campaign headquarters on
Lakeland Drive.

Movers and Shakers
Pickering Deputy Chief of Staff Mike Chappell from McComb has left his position for the private sector to become director of government affairs for Fierce & Isakowitz, a Republican oriented lobbying, consulting and public affairs firm in Washington, DC.  Meanwhile,
Mary Mills Lane of Jackson started work last week as a staff assistant for Congressman Chip Pickering in the Washington office.

Tommy Squires, who is a member of Lt. Governor Amy Tuck’s security detail, was recently named “Trooper of the Year.” 

House Districts 81-120

District 85 –

House 

85 

Arnold 

Clark, Jr. 

House 

85 

Jesse 

Harness 

House 

85 

Walter 

Huston 

House 

85 

America 

Middleton 

House 

85 

Jerry 

Sims 

Incumbent America Middleton should win handily despite the fact that two of the candidates work for Alcorn State University and have the ASU administration's blessing.

District 86 -

House 

86 

Samuel 

Britton 

House 

86 

Tom 

Kittrell 

House 

86 

Joe 

Taylor 

Representative Joe Taylor reluctantly decided to run for re-election, bad news for his two challengers, as he should win hands down.

District 88 –

House 

88 

Jonathan 

Hodge 

House 

88 

Diane 

Jordan 

House 

88 

Gary 

Staples 

House 

88 

Joe 

Ellzey 

Three Republican primary challengers have lined up to face Incumbent Democrat Representative Joe Ellzey in this Jones County based District. Former State Representative Gary Staples is currently the frontrunner to be the GOP standard bearer. When the ’99 Governor’s race was decided in the House of Representatives, Ellzey voted for Musgrove even though his district had gone for Parker. Ellzeys’ vote against Parker, who has deep Jones County roots, could cause problems if Republicans up ballot have coat tails.

District 90 –

House 

90 

Gaines 

Reynolds 

House 

90 

Joe 

Warren 

Republican challenger Gaines Reynolds faces off against long shot speaker possibility Joe Warren. Reynolds needs to do everything right to pull off the upset win against Warren.

District 91 –

House 

91 

Joey 

Hudson 

House 

91 

Antrease 

Autman 

A possible upset special as challenger Antrease Aultman may be the beneficiary of an increased BVAP (black voting age population) in Representative Joey Hudson's new district.

District 93 –

House 

93 

Rico 

Lee 

House 

93 

Dirk 

Dedeaux 

Democrat incumbent Representative Dirk Dedeaux faces strong general election opposition in Rico Lee. Dedeaux and Lee have strong roots in this district, where family ties carry a lot of weight. Dedeaux is seen as somewhat vulnerable. Lee, a hard working campaigner, should receive significant backing from the business community. This race is going to be one to watch.

District 95 –

House 

95 

Linda 

Johnson 

House 

95 

Eric 

Necaise 

House 

95 

James 

Overstreet 

House 

95 

Robert 

Tompkins 

House 

95 

Jessica 

Upshaw 

When redistricting House District 95 moved across the state from Adams County to Harrison County, it was left without an incumbent legislator. Four Republicans and one Democratic candidate jumped into the race to fill the open seat. On the GOP side, attorney Jessica Upshaw and law enforcement veteran Robert Tompkins have the early momentum. As of the April 30th reporting deadline, Upshaw had raised $4,865 including a $2,000 contribution to herself. Tompkins came in at $3,245 but also put in $2,000 of personal money. The district leans Republican but the GOP nominee can’t look past Democratic opponent Linda Johnson. Johnson has one run for city council under her belt and is active in many local civic organizations. She has already taken out a $15,000 loan for her campaign.

District 97

House 

97 

Randall 

Love 

House 

97 

Sam 

Mims 

House 

97 

Chad 

Toney 

House 

97 

Derrick 

Dall 

Redistricting gerrymandered House District 97 into a 120 mile long district that snakes across 6 counties, from the Mississippi River to the border of Jefferson Davis County. In response, Representative Clem Nettles decided to retire from the legislature. The district leans Republican and based on early signs should be a pick-up for the GOP. Neither Democratic Candidate in the race reported over a $1000 on their May 9th campaign finance report (Derrick Dahl - $750; Chad Toney - $415). Both Republicans neared the $10,000 mark (Randall Love - $9430; Sam Mims - $9,603). With exceptions of parts of McComb and Natchez, the district is largely rural. The district is tailored for Love to win, but he’ll have to get past Mims in the primary.

District 98 –

House 

98 

William 

Brown 

House 

98 

James 

Hall 

House 

98 

David 

Myers 

House 

98 

Larry 

Singleton 

State Representative David Myers should win, but he will probably face a run-off with one-time political ally William Brown.

District 99 –

House 

99 

James 

Bates 

House 

99 

Edward 

Morgan 

House 

99 

Bill 

Pigott 

House 

99 

Zack 

Rushing 

House 

99 

William 

Stogner 

House 

99 

Robert 

Vince 

Veteran legislator Vince may return to the House after a four-year hiatus, defeating Rushing, a self-proclaimed candidate for Speaker of the House.

District 100 –

House 

100 

Virginia 

Carlton 

House 

100 

Ken 

Morgan 

House 

100 

O. K. 

Moore 

Incumbent O.K. Moore faces a significant challenge in Virginia Carlton. O.K., who was pictured on the front page of the Clarion Ledger catching a few zzz’s during the special session, could be vulnerable.

District 101 –

House 

101 

Joey 

Fillingane 

House 

101 

Tony 

Mozingo 

Incumbent State Representative Joey Fillingane was effectively re-elected when his opponent Tony Mozingo dropped out of the race a few weeks ago.

District 102 –

House 

102 

Derek 

Arrington 

House 

102 

Lee 

Davis 

House 

102 

Rick 

James 

House 

102 

Jolly 

Matthews, III 

Two Democratic candidates are lining up to oppose Republican Incumbent Lee Jerrell Davis. Davis’ most significant opponent will be his Republican opponent Derek Arrington, whose grandfather, Robert E. Arrington held this legislative seat in the 70’s and his wife is Vice-President for Government Relations of the Mississippi Hospital Association.

District 106 –

House 

106 

Jesse 

Dedeaux 

House 

106 

Herb 

Frierson 

House 

106 

Mark 

Hines 

House 

106 

Sherry 

Morris 

House 

106 

Ronnie 

Smith 

Herb Frierson, who switched to the Republican Party late last year, has a strong primary challenger in Mark Hines. Hines had been laying the ground work to run against Frierson long before Frierson switched to the GOP. If Frierson can get out of the primary, he’ll likely win in November. If Hines wins, the race in November could be interesting.

District 107 –  

House 

107 

Tom 

Bailey 

House 

107 

Jimmy 

Howell 

House 

107 

Mike 

Howell 

House 

107 

Doug 

Lee 

House 

107 

Deryk 

Parker 

House 

107 

Greg 

Reeves 

House 

107 

Nolan 

Walker 

Six Democrats and one Republican lined up to succeed retiring Republican Representative Percy Maples. This seat represents the Democrats best chance to pick up a Republican seat.

District 111 –

House 

111 

Mike 

Mangum 

House 

111 

Carmel 

Smith 

Incumbent Representative Carmel Wells-Smith faces a significant Pascagoula City Councilman Mike Mangum. Wells-Smith should win re-nomination but this race deserves watching.

District 115 –

House 

115 

Jamie 

Creel 

House 

115 

Glenn 

Endris 

House 

115 

Randall 

Patterson 

House 

115 

Wendy 

Peavy 

Former State Representative Glenn Endris is attempting to regain a seat in the legislature by knocking off controversial incumbent legislator Jamie Creel, nephew of Representative Dianne Peranich. Though Endris is not extremely popular within the district, Creel has had several run-ins with the law since the past election. Creel is in the fight of his political life with Endris, another veteran of the Legislature.

District 116 –

House 

116 

Walter 

Freeman 

House 

116 

Charles 

Stein 

House 

116 

Leonard 

Bentz 

House 

116 

Guy 

Roberts, Jr. 

The retirement of Republican Representative Les Barnett has made way for three Republicans and one Democratic candidate to vie to fill the seat.

District 117 –

House 

117 

Patrick 

Collins 

House 

117 

C. 

Switzer 

House 

117 

Michael 

Janus 

Incumbent Legislator Michael Janus is being challenged by C.T. Switzer, a former Harrison County Supervisor, and Patrick Collins who worked for the city of Gulfport until he filed to run against Janus. As the incumbent, Janus has the edge, but this could be the fight of his political life.

District 121 –

House 

121 

Ray 

Harmon 

House 

121 

Diane 

Peranich 

When the House of Representatives was reapportioned, the redistricting pen was in incumbent Representative Dianne Peranich’s hand. Nevertheless, she’s drawn a serious challenger in Ray Harmon from Gulfport. The district leans Democratic, but Harmon represented much of it on the local school board. Harmon is a relentless campaigner who may make a race of this in spite of Peranich having drawn her own district.

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