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Magnolia Political Report #41
April 29, 2003

Hits this year: 274,536
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John Arthur Eaves Out - MS Policy Forum In
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After announcing he was dropping out of the race for Governor, John Arthur Eaves publicized he would stay involved in politics through his new organization the "Mississippi Policy Institute."  He spoke of the Mississippi Policy Institute at a Jackson press conference and in faxed releases.  However, there's already a Mississippi Policy Institute, a conservative think-tank in the beginning stages created by the Mississippi Family Council.  Eaves quickly sent out a correction informing all that his organization is actually the "Mississippi Policy Forum."

Eaves' organization plans "to conduct research and provide new policies for the public debate."  Among those already signed up to guide the organization from its Board of Directors are former Governors Ray Mabus, Kirk Fordice and Bill Allain as well as former Congressman Ronnie Shows and Fordice MDECD head Jimmy Hiedel.

You Are Invited To Attend The Public Introduction Of The Mississippi Policy Forum 4/16
Mississippi Policy Institute - Mississippi Family Council 4/14

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Henick
Joining Giuliani
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Yazoo City native Chris Henick, who recently left his job at the White House where he was a top deputy to Karl Rove and President Bush, has landed a job at Giuliani Partners.

Henick's close ties to national Republicans are bound to fuel speculation about Rudy Giuliani's presidential ambitions. "If you're looking to run nationally, that's your guy," said one source. Giuliani spokeswoman Sunny Mindel said Henick was brought in to work on "very specific issues relevant to clients of Giuliani Partners," not for a White House race.

Henick lands job at Giuliani Partners 4/5

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Special Guests
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Virginia Governor Mark Warner will headline the Mississippi Democratic Party Jefferson Jackson Day Dinner, traditionally their largest fundraiser of the year. The dinner will be held at the Clarion Hotel in Jackson Saturday May 31 at 7 pm. A reception beginning at 6 pm will precede the dinner. Tickets are $100 each and can be purchased online at www.msdemocrats.net, by calling 601.969.2913, or by emailing democrats@msdemocrats.net.

The Rankin County Republican Party will honor Congressman Chip Pickering at a dinner on Thursday May 29 at the Hilton Hotel in Jackson. Special guest speaker, former Congressman JC Watts, will keynote the $60 per person ($600 per table) dinner, which starts at 7 pm. A $100 per person reception at 6 pm will precede the dinner. For questions contact Gregg Harper at 601.948.6136.


First Parents George H.W. and Barbara Bush will tour the Baptist Cancer Services new Hederman Cancer Center in Jackson on May 5, before attending a luncheon benefiting the cancer center at the
Crowne Plaza Hotel in downtown Jackson.  Baptist Cancer Services, part of Baptist Health Systems, is launching a $15 million capital campaign.

On Wednesday evening, April 30, former President George Bush and Republican candidate for Governor, Haley Barbour of Yazoo City, will be the special guests at a Republican Governor’s Association (RGA) fundraiser in Houston, Texas. The RGA will use the funds raised to support Barbour and his Republican colleagues who are on the ballot this year.

United States Treasury Secretary John Snow will keynote the Delta Council's 68th annual meeting at the campus of Delta State University in Cleveland, MS. The Friday, May 9 meeting begins at 10:30 and concludes with a catfish luncheon at noon.
http://www.deltacouncil.org/AnnualMtg03.html


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MRP v. Tom Cameron
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When the Mississippi Republican Party Executive Committee ruled Representative Tom Cameron did not meet the residency requirements to run for Senate District 22, Cameron took his case to court. After hearing testimony from Cameron and the state GOP on April 22, Chancery Judge Edward E. Patten, Jr. ruled in favor of the Mississippi Republican Party. Both the state GOP's and Patten's rulings were based on an Attorney General's opinion that Cameron was not qualified to run. According to the opinion, state law requires a candidate to have lived in the district where he/she is running for at least 2 years immediately prior.

Mississippi
GOP wins residency dispute in legislative race 4/23

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Wildmon
Out Early
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It has been well documented that the Republican turnout for Mike Parker was lower in 1999 vs. Kirk Fordice's 1995 turnout.  That smaller Republican turnout in 1999 has been partly attributed to the lack of enthusiasm for Parker among social conservatives, particularly among people like Rev. Don Wildmon of the Tupelo-based American Family Association (AFA).  So how is the 2003 campaign for Governor already different from 1999?  Earlier this week, a personal letter from Wildmon landed in a lot of mail boxes around Mississippi, stating his support for Haley Barbour.  "Over the past few months, Haley and I have sat down two times and discussed the issues at length," Wildmon's letter states.  "This year's election is important.  We have the best opportunity in my lifetime for conservatives to take the leadership reins of our state government.  This is no time to sit on the sidelines.  With his (Haley's) contacts and experience, his ability to work as a team player, and his willingness to work with the legislature, he will be able to move our state forward while maintaining the values we believe in."  It looks like Haley Barbour is already shoring up the pro-life, pro-family conservative voters in this campaign year.


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Leadership
Jackson Round Table
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The three Democratic Lt. Governor hopefuls, State Senator Barbara Blackmon, former '99 Gubernatorial Candidate Jim Roberts, and '99 Lt. Governor Candidate Troy Brown met for a roundtable sponsored by Leadership Jackson at the University Club in Jackson last week. Sparks flew early and often between Blackmon and Brown over issues ranging from prisons to civil justice reform. Perhaps the issue that distinguished the three candidates the most was tort reform. Brown advocated more tort reform citing the jobs that it would bring to the state, while Roberts came down somewhere in the middle. According to Roberts, if elected he would approach the problem as a mediator, bridging the gap between the trial lawyers and the medical community. Blackmon seemed to dismiss more tort reform and instead promoted open records for doctors and hospitals as well as setting limits on insurance premiums.


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New Offices
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Congressman Chip Pickering (R-MS3) opened up a Brookhaven Office on April 24 with an open house for the community and elected officials.  Brookhaven is in the "new" part of the Third District as is
Natchez where Pickering plans to host a grand opening for an office soon.  Other offices are located in Pearl and Meridian.  His former Columbus Office, now in Congressman Roger Wicker's (R-MS1) district, has moved to Starkville. The Brookhaven Office is located at 230 South Whitworth Street in Brookhaven.  Former Congressman Mike Parker had an office in the same location.



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Judicial Investigation
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On Thursday April 17 the "Biloxi Sun Herald" broke the story about federal investigators having subpoenaed records from the state's highest courts. According to their story; federal and state authorities are "looking into whether lawyers paid off loans for state court judges in exchange for favorable treatment in court." One week later, "The Clarion Ledger" carried its own story about the investigation. Both papers focused their stories on State Supreme Court Justice Oliver Diaz Jr., whose father testified before a federal grand jury in Jackson earlier this month. The "Sun Herald" also names high profile trial lawyers Paul Minor, the son of columnist Bill Minor, and Dickie Scruggs as possible subjects of the investigation.

High court's records subpoenaed 4/17


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HOUSE RACES TO WATCH
Districts 41 – 80

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District 43

Douglas

Lovorn

D

Robert

Moody

D

Linda

Triplett

D

Kenny

Dempsey

R

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Two of the three leading candidates for speaker, Billy McCoy and Bobby Moody, have legitimate opposition for re-election for their house seats.  Dr. George Waddell is trying to unseat Billy McCoy. Bobby Moody of Lewisville pulled contenders from both major parties as well as an independent contender.  In the Democratic primary, Moody should have no problem getting past Douglas Lovern but in the general he will face credible opposition. He wouldn't have a problem in a head-to-head race, but with an independent that could pull from the Democratic base and the potential for anti-incumbent sentiment; Moody will have to run a legitimate race.  Getting tied down in his Winston County based district could complicate Moody's run for speaker.

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District 44

C.

Bounds

D

Mike

Eakes

D

Danny

Petty

D

Kiah

Hitt

R

Kirk

Morgan

R

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Based on perceived vulnerability, incumbent Representative Mike Eakes drew two Democratic opponents as well as two Republicans.  Kurt Morgan, who received a lot of encouragement to run for the Senate against Gloria Williamson, decided to make a run for the House instead. The early money is on Morgan vs Eakes facing off on November 4th, but Morgan has his work cut out for him getting by Kiah Hitt in the primary. 


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District 45

Bennett

Malone

D

Clinton

Brock

R

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Long time incumbent Bennett Malone of Carthage faces a strong challenger in Clinton "Daygo" Brock. Brock's brother, Carlton, is a supervisor in Leake County, giving Brock strong ties to the district. Malone is still the odds on favorite to win but this race is worth watching.


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District 47

Bryant

Clark

D

Leroy

Johnson

D

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Bryant Clark, the son of retiring Speaker Pro Tempore Robert Clark, stepped up to run for the seat his dad has held since 1968. To win the seat he'll have to get past Leroy Johnson, the executive director of Southern Echo, a grass roots organization instrumental in redistricting and educational issues. This race should be a dogfight.


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District 48

Charles

Edwards

D

John

Shaw

D

Mary

Stevens

D

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Two Democratic challengers filed to run against incumbent legislator Mary Ann Stevens in House District 48. Charles Edwards, a Holmes County Lawyer, poses the most serious challenge to Stevens, who is running despite her husband's health problems.


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District 53

Bobby

Moak

D

Richard

Baker

R

Caruther

Whitehorn

R

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Richard Baker, Brookhaven CPA, is a strong candidate against House powerbroker, Bobby Moak. Baker must first secure the GOP nomination against Caruther Whitehorn, a challenge he should be up to. Entrenched incumbent Moak should be safe, but this district has trended GOP in recent years. Here is another race where a strong challenger and an anti-incumbent mood could make things interesting.


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District 56

Paige

Gill

D

Philip

Gunn

R

Jep

Barbour

R

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In a strong Republican District with most of the votes in parts of Yazoo County, South Madison County and Clinton, the race will almost certainly be decided on August 5 in the Republican Primary.  Incumbent Representative Jep Barbour of Yazoo City faces a serious challenger in lawyer Phillip Gunn of Clinton.  However, Barbour has a strong conservative voting record that should keep him safe in such a conservative district.  Plus, he benefits that his uncle, Haley Barbour, is leading the GOP ticket. It is hard to overestimate the value of this factor in this district.  Gunn will have some traction in Clinton, but Yazoo and Madison will have more votes on Election Day. If Barbour does get the nomination, he will face off against Paige Eaves Gill, the daughter of two-time gubernatorial candidate John Arthur Eaves and the sister of former trial lawyer gubernatorial candidate John Arthur Eaves Jr.  


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District 59

Rita

Wray

R

Clayton

Smith

R

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Harry Medders dropped out of the race two weeks ago. Incumbent Representative Clayton Smith was left with one opponent, Rankin county GOP activist Rita Ray. Rita Ray will get significant support from certain Rankin County Republican factions, but it would be an upset if she were able to knock off Smith on August 5th.


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District 64

Bill

Denny

R

Joe

Nosef

R

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**Republican Primary of the Year**
The Republican Primary for House District 64 is quickly becoming one of the most watched Republican primaries in the state this year. The race features 16-year incumbent legislator Bill Denny and well-known Republican party activist Joe Nosef. Nosef, while well-known for years by Republican elected officials and the party faithful, has now gained the attention of the lobbyists at the Capitol and others by raising over $60,000 and attracting more than 240 supporters to a campaign kickoff party in March. Denny reported a $16,560 campaign warchest on his report ending December 31, 2002 and has hired professional consultant Dan Davis and Mike Marsh to work with him in his re-election bid. District 64 has changed substantially since Denny's last competitive race 16 years ago. Both candidates have significant bases of support, will work hard, raise money and run well-organized campaigns. It should be the most hotly contested primary on the Republican ballot on August 5th.


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District 65

Christopher

Bell

D

Mary

Coleman

D

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This one could be an upset in the making.  Incumbent Representative Mary Coleman drew a strong challenger in Christopher Bell.
Bell, a law firm investigator and Democratic activist, is popular with the under 40 professional crowd. Coleman, despite being President of the National Black Caucus of state legislators and having a war chest of over $30,000, has never polled better than 51% in any election.


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District 66

Cecil

Brown

D

James

Disharoon

D

Chris

Klotz

D

Gary

Love

D

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Democratic Incumbent Cecil Brown has an advantage in his bid for re-election but don't count out challenger Gary Love. Brown has a $56,000 war chest but the district is 52% black and Love, who is black, has a good history with a number of African American political figures. Clotz will also run hard, cutting into Brown's votes and possibly forcing a run off.       


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District 68

Credell

Calhoun

D

Tom

Wallace

D

David

Harrington

R

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The battle for House District 68 should be decided in the Democratic Primary. Incumbent Tom Wallace should win, but he is running against a hard charging grass roots campaigner in Credell Calhoun, who lost the seat to Wallace in 1996.
     

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District 75

Tracy

Arinder

D

Tom

Miles

D

Henry

Minor

D

L.

Sessums, II

D

Joe

Bell

R

Frank

Herring

R

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For the first time in three generations, House Seat 75 will not be occupied by a Livingston. Three Democrats and two Republicans have stepped up to fill the void left by the retirement of David Livingston. The district leans Republican but this one is a toss up.


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District 79

Blaine

Eaton

D

Dr. Larry

Gibson

D

Jimmy

Lofton, Sr.

D

Larry

Harvey

R

Wilford

Ishee

R

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Democratic incumbent Bo Eaton faces two other Democrats, two Republicans, and one Independent in this toss up district.  Republican Larry Harvey has previously made a strong run for State Senate while the other Republican, Wilford Ishee, has the benefit of leaning on his brother, Representative Roger Ishee, for advice. Whoever emerges from the Republican primary will face an uphill battle against probable Democratic nominee Bo Eaton.


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District 80

Omeria

Scott

D

Larry

Thomas

D

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Mayor McDonald Scott should win against Larry Eugene, but this is her first serious challenge in years.

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Polling Numbers
Results reflect votes made by visitors to MagnoliaReport.com and are not scientific.
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If the Democratic Primary for Treasurer were held today, who would win?

Cindy Ayers Elliot

36.29%

Gary Anderson

34.45%

Rob Smith

29.26%

If the election were held today, who would win the AG race?

Scott Newton - R

52.19%

Jim Hood - D

47.81%

Who is going to be the next Speaker of the House?

Rep. Steve Holland - Plantersville

41.11%

Rep. Billy McCoy - Rienzi

39.26%

Rep. Bobby Moody - Louisville

19.63%


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Quotable Quotes
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"Dumb Bastards" - Ken Combs, Mayor of Gulfport, referring to North Gulfport residents and others who are against a proposed retail development.

"If there were any criminal acts or any laws that have been violated, somebody should go to jail," - Frank Melton fuming over the possible illegal transfer of planes by an Ex-Lott aide.

When asked if Paul Minor paid off any of his campaign loans Chief Justice Edwin Pittman said, "Not that I'm aware of."

"I am very disappointed. The way I see it I can't run for anything." - Tom Cameron after Chancery Judge Lewis E. Patten ruled against Cameron in his suit against the Mississippi Republican Party.

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Movers and Shakers
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Amanda McPhail, granddaughter of former Mississippi Republican Party (MRP) chairman Evelyn McPhail and a native of the Mississippi Gulf Coast, is working as the 4th Congressional District Field Director for Haley Barbour's campaign for Governor.  Evelyn McPhail was beloved by Republicans across Mississippi and the country, and was known for expanding the Republican Party through her emphasis on grassroots campaigning.  She died in November 1998 from injuries suffered in a car accident in 1997.  She was elected to the number two spot at the Republican National Committee (RNC) while Haley Barbour was Chairman of the RNC.  Until recently, Amanda McPhail worked as Political Director of the Georgia Republican Party with their Chairman, Ralph Reed (former head of the national Christian Coalition).  Amanda was instrumental in the massive grassroots effort last year that helped underdog Republican Saxby Chambliss defeat incumbent Democrat Senator Max Cleland as well as helping elect Republican Sonny Perdue over the favored incumbent Democrat Governor Roy Barnes. Expect a grassroots effort from the Barbour campaign in South Mississippi.

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