**************************************************** Magnolia Political Report #41
April 29, 2003 Hits this year: 274,536
****************************************************
**************************************************** John Arthur Eaves Out - MS Policy Forum In
**************************************************** After
announcing he was dropping out of the race for Governor, John Arthur Eaves
publicized he would stay involved in politics
through his new organization the "Mississippi Policy Institute."
He spoke of the Mississippi Policy Institute at a Jackson press conference
and in faxed releases. However, there's already a Mississippi Policy
Institute, a conservative think-tank in the beginning stages created by
the Mississippi Family Council. Eaves quickly sent out a correction
informing all that his organization is actually the "Mississippi
Policy Forum."
Eaves'
organization plans "to conduct research and provide new policies
for the public debate." Among those already signed up to guide the
organization from its Board of Directors are former Governors Ray Mabus, Kirk Fordice and Bill Allain as well as former Congressman Ronnie Shows and Fordice MDECD head Jimmy Hiedel.
**************************************************** Henick Joining Giuliani
**************************************************** YazooCity native Chris Henick,
who recently left his job at the White House where he was a top deputy
to Karl Rove and President Bush, has landed a job at Giuliani Partners.
Henick's
close ties to national Republicans are bound to fuel speculation about
Rudy Giuliani's presidential ambitions. "If you're looking to run
nationally, that's your guy," said one source. Giuliani spokeswoman
Sunny Mindel said Henick was brought in
to work on "very specific issues relevant to clients of Giuliani
Partners," not for a White House race.
**************************************************** Special Guests **************************************************** Virginia
Governor Mark Warner will headline the Mississippi Democratic Party Jefferson
Jackson Day Dinner, traditionally their largest fundraiser of the year.
The dinner will be held at the Clarion Hotel in Jackson Saturday May 31
at 7 pm. A reception beginning at 6 pm will precede the dinner. Tickets
are $100 each and can be purchased online at www.msdemocrats.net, by calling 601.969.2913,
or by emailing democrats@msdemocrats.net.
The Rankin County Republican Party will honor Congressman Chip Pickering
at a dinner on Thursday May 29 at the Hilton Hotel in Jackson. Special
guest speaker, former Congressman JC Watts, will keynote the $60 per person
($600 per table) dinner, which starts at 7 pm. A $100 per person reception at 6
pm will precede the dinner. For questions contact Gregg Harper at 601.948.6136.
First
Parents George H.W. and Barbara Bush will tour the Baptist Cancer Services
new Hederman Cancer Center in Jackson on May 5, before attending a luncheon
benefiting the cancer center at the Crowne Plaza Hotel in downtown Jackson.
Baptist Cancer Services, part of Baptist Health Systems, is launching
a $15 million capital campaign.
On Wednesday evening, April 30,
former President George Bush and Republican candidate for Governor, Haley
Barbour of Yazoo City, will be the special guests at a Republican Governor’s
Association (RGA) fundraiser in Houston, Texas. The RGA will use the funds
raised to support Barbour and his Republican colleagues who are on the
ballot this year.
United
States Treasury Secretary John Snow will keynote the Delta Council's 68th
annual meeting at the campus of Delta State University in Cleveland, MS.
The Friday, May 9 meeting begins at 10:30 and concludes with a catfish luncheon at noon. http://www.deltacouncil.org/AnnualMtg03.html
**************************************************** MRP v. Tom Cameron **************************************************** When
the Mississippi Republican Party Executive Committee ruled Representative
Tom Cameron did not meet the residency requirements to run for Senate
District 22, Cameron took his case to court. After hearing testimony from
Cameron and the state GOP on April 22, Chancery Judge Edward E. Patten,
Jr. ruled in favor of the Mississippi Republican Party. Both the state
GOP's and Patten's rulings were based on an Attorney General's opinion
that Cameron was not qualified to run. According to the opinion, state
law requires a candidate to have lived in the district where he/she is
running for at least 2 years immediately prior.
Mississippi GOP wins residency dispute in legislative
race 4/23
**************************************************** Wildmon Out Early **************************************************** It
has been well documented that the Republican turnout for Mike Parker was
lower in 1999 vs. Kirk Fordice's 1995 turnout.
That smaller Republican turnout in 1999 has been partly attributed to
the lack of enthusiasm for Parker among social conservatives, particularly
among people like Rev. Don Wildmon of the Tupelo-based American Family Association (AFA).
So how is the 2003 campaign for Governor already different from 1999?
Earlier this week, a personal letter from Wildmon
landed in a lot of mail boxes around Mississippi, stating his support
for Haley Barbour. "Over the past few months,
Haley and I have sat down two times and discussed the issues at length,"
Wildmon's letter states. "This
year's election is important. We have the best opportunity in my
lifetime for conservatives to take the leadership reins of our state government.
This is no time to sit on the sidelines. With his (Haley's) contacts
and experience, his ability to work as a team player, and his willingness
to work with the legislature, he will be able to move our state forward
while maintaining the values we believe in." It looks like
Haley Barbour is already shoring up the pro-life, pro-family conservative
voters in this campaign year.
**************************************************** Leadership Jackson Round
Table **************************************************** The
three Democratic Lt. Governor hopefuls, State Senator Barbara Blackmon,
former '99 Gubernatorial Candidate Jim Roberts, and '99 Lt. Governor Candidate
Troy Brown met for a roundtable sponsored by Leadership Jackson at the
University Club in Jackson last week. Sparks flew early and often between
Blackmon and Brown over issues ranging from prisons to civil justice reform.
Perhaps the issue that distinguished the three candidates the most was
tort reform. Brown advocated more tort reform citing the jobs that it
would bring to the state, while Roberts came down somewhere in the middle.
According to Roberts, if elected he would approach the problem as a mediator,
bridging the gap between the trial lawyers and the medical community.
Blackmon seemed to dismiss more tort reform and instead promoted open
records for doctors and hospitals as well as setting limits on insurance
premiums.
**************************************************** New Offices **************************************************** Congressman
Chip Pickering (R-MS3) opened up a Brookhaven Office on April 24 with
an open house for the community and elected officials. Brookhaven is
in the "new" part of the Third District as is Natchez where Pickering plans to host a
grand opening for an office soon. Other offices are located in Pearl and Meridian. His former Columbus
Office, now in Congressman Roger Wicker's (R-MS1) district, has moved
to Starkville. The Brookhaven Office is located
at 230 South Whitworth Street in Brookhaven. Former Congressman
Mike Parker had an office in the same location.
**************************************************** Judicial Investigation **************************************************** On
Thursday April 17 the "Biloxi Sun Herald" broke the story about
federal investigators having subpoenaed records from the state's highest
courts. According to their story; federal and state authorities are "looking
into whether lawyers paid off loans for state court judges in exchange
for favorable treatment in court." One week later, "The Clarion
Ledger" carried its own story about the investigation. Both papers
focused their stories on State Supreme Court Justice Oliver Diaz Jr.,
whose father testified before a federal grand jury in Jackson earlier
this month. The "Sun Herald" also names high profile trial lawyers
Paul Minor, the son of columnist Bill Minor, and Dickie
Scruggs as possible subjects of the investigation.
**************************************************** HOUSE RACES TO WATCH
Districts 41 – 80
****************************************************
**************************************************** District 43
Douglas
Lovorn
D
Robert
Moody
D
Linda
Triplett
D
Kenny
Dempsey
R
**************************************************** Two of the three leading
candidates for speaker, Billy McCoy and Bobby Moody, have legitimate opposition
for re-election for their house seats. Dr. George Waddell is trying to
unseat Billy McCoy. Bobby Moody of Lewisville pulled contenders from both major
parties as well as an independent contender. In the Democratic primary,
Moody should have no problem getting past Douglas Lovern
but in the general he will face credible opposition. He wouldn't have a
problem in a head-to-head race, but with an independent that could pull
from the Democratic base and the potential for anti-incumbent sentiment;
Moody will have to run a legitimate race. Getting tied down in his Winston
County based district could complicate Moody's run for speaker.
**************************************************** District 44
C.
Bounds
D
Mike
Eakes
D
Danny
Petty
D
Kiah
Hitt
R
Kirk
Morgan
R
**************************************************** Based on perceived vulnerability,
incumbent Representative Mike Eakes drew two Democratic
opponents as well as two Republicans. Kurt Morgan, who received a lot of
encouragement to run for the Senate against Gloria Williamson, decided to
make a run for the House instead. The early money is on Morgan vsEakes facing off on November 4th, but
Morgan has his work cut out for him getting by KiahHitt in the primary.
**************************************************** District 45
Bennett
Malone
D
Clinton
Brock
R
**************************************************** Long time incumbent Bennett
Malone of Carthage faces a strong challenger in Clinton
"Daygo" Brock. Brock's brother, Carlton, is a supervisor in Leake County, giving Brock strong ties
to the district. Malone is still the odds on favorite to win but this race
is worth watching.
**************************************************** District 47
Bryant
Clark
D
Leroy
Johnson
D
**************************************************** Bryant Clark, the son
of retiring Speaker Pro Tempore Robert Clark, stepped up to run for the
seat his dad has held since 1968. To win the seat he'll have to get past
Leroy Johnson, the executive director of Southern Echo, a grass roots organization
instrumental in redistricting and educational issues. This race should be
a dogfight.
**************************************************** District 48
Charles
Edwards
D
John
Shaw
D
Mary
Stevens
D
**************************************************** Two Democratic challengers
filed to run against incumbent legislator Mary Ann Stevens in House District
48. Charles Edwards, a Holmes County Lawyer, poses the most serious challenge
to Stevens, who is running despite her husband's health problems.
**************************************************** District 53
Bobby
Moak
D
Richard
Baker
R
Caruther
Whitehorn
R
****************************************************
Richard Baker, Brookhaven CPA, is a strong candidate against House powerbroker,
Bobby Moak. Baker must first secure the GOP nomination against CarutherWhitehorn, a challenge
he should be up to. Entrenched incumbent Moak
should be safe, but this district has trended GOP in recent years. Here
is another race where a strong challenger and an anti-incumbent mood could
make things interesting.
**************************************************** District 56
Paige
Gill
D
Philip
Gunn
R
Jep
Barbour
R
**************************************************** In a strong Republican
District with most of the votes in parts of Yazoo County, South Madison
County and Clinton, the race will almost certainly be decided on August
5 in the Republican Primary. Incumbent Representative Jep
Barbour of YazooCity faces a serious challenger in lawyer
Phillip Gunn of Clinton. However, Barbour has a strong
conservative voting record that should keep him safe in such a conservative
district. Plus, he benefits that his uncle, Haley Barbour, is leading the
GOP ticket. It is hard to overestimate the value of this factor in this
district. Gunn will have some traction in Clinton, but Yazoo and Madison
will have more votes on Election Day. If Barbour does get the nomination,
he will face off against Paige Eaves Gill, the daughter of two-time gubernatorial
candidate John Arthur Eaves and the sister of former trial lawyer gubernatorial
candidate John Arthur Eaves Jr.
**************************************************** District 59
Rita
Wray
R
Clayton
Smith
R
****************************************************
Harry Medders dropped out of the race two weeks
ago. Incumbent Representative Clayton Smith was left with one opponent,
Rankin county GOP activist Rita Ray. Rita Ray will get significant support
from certain Rankin County Republican factions, but it would be an upset
if she were able to knock off Smith on August 5th.
**************************************************** District 64
Bill
Denny
R
Joe
Nosef
R
**************************************************** **Republican Primary of the Year** The
Republican Primary for House District 64 is quickly becoming one of the
most watched Republican primaries in the state this year. The race features
16-year incumbent legislator Bill Denny and well-known Republican party
activist Joe Nosef. Nosef, while well-known for years by Republican elected
officials and the party faithful, has now gained the attention of the
lobbyists at the Capitol and others by raising over $60,000 and attracting
more than 240 supporters to a campaign kickoff party in March. Denny reported
a $16,560 campaign warchest on his report ending December 31, 2002 and
has hired professional consultant Dan Davis and Mike Marsh to work with
him in his re-election bid. District 64 has changed substantially since
Denny's last competitive race 16 years ago. Both candidates have significant
bases of support, will work hard, raise money and run well-organized campaigns.
It should be the most hotly contested primary on the Republican ballot
on August 5th.
**************************************************** District 65
Christopher
Bell
D
Mary
Coleman
D
****************************************************
This one could be an upset in the making. Incumbent Representative Mary
Coleman drew a strong challenger in Christopher Bell. Bell, a law firm investigator and Democratic
activist, is popular with the under 40 professional crowd. Coleman, despite
being President of the National Black Caucus of state legislators and having
a war chest of over $30,000, has never polled better than 51% in any election.
**************************************************** District 66
Cecil
Brown
D
James
Disharoon
D
Chris
Klotz
D
Gary
Love
D
**************************************************** Democratic Incumbent Cecil Brown has an advantage in his
bid for re-election but don't count out challenger Gary Love. Brown has
a $56,000 war chest but the district is 52% black and Love, who is black,
has a good history with a number of African American political figures.
Clotz will also run hard, cutting into Brown's votes and possibly
forcing a run off.
**************************************************** District 68
Credell
Calhoun
D
Tom
Wallace
D
David
Harrington
R
**************************************************** The battle for House District 68
should be decided in the Democratic Primary. Incumbent Tom Wallace should
win, but he is running against a hard charging grass roots campaigner in
Credell Calhoun, who lost the seat to Wallace
in 1996.
**************************************************** District 75
Tracy
Arinder
D
Tom
Miles
D
Henry
Minor
D
L.
Sessums, II
D
Joe
Bell
R
Frank
Herring
R
**************************************************** For the first time in
three generations, House Seat 75 will not be occupied by a Livingston. Three
Democrats and two Republicans have stepped up to fill the void left by the
retirement of David Livingston. The district leans Republican but this one
is a toss up.
**************************************************** District 79
Blaine
Eaton
D
Dr. Larry
Gibson
D
Jimmy
Lofton, Sr.
D
Larry
Harvey
R
Wilford
Ishee
R
**************************************************** Democratic incumbent
Bo Eaton faces two other Democrats, two Republicans, and one Independent
in this toss up district. Republican Larry Harvey has previously made a
strong run for State Senate while the other Republican, WilfordIshee, has the benefit of leaning on his brother, Representative
Roger Ishee, for advice. Whoever emerges from
the Republican primary will face an uphill battle against probable Democratic
nominee Bo Eaton.
**************************************************** District 80
Omeria
Scott
D
Larry
Thomas
D
**************************************************** Mayor McDonald Scott
should win against Larry Eugene, but this is her first serious challenge
in years.
**************************************************** Polling Numbers
Results reflect votes made by visitors to MagnoliaReport.com
and are not scientific.
****************************************************
If the Democratic Primary for Treasurer were held today, who would win?
Cindy Ayers Elliot
36.29%
Gary Anderson
34.45%
Rob Smith
29.26%
If the election were held today,
who would win the AG race?
Scott Newton - R
52.19%
Jim Hood - D
47.81%
Who is going to be the next Speaker
of the House?
Rep. Steve Holland - Plantersville
41.11%
Rep. Billy McCoy - Rienzi
39.26%
Rep. Bobby Moody - Louisville
19.63%
**************************************************** Quotable Quotes
****************************************************
"Dumb Bastards" - Ken Combs, Mayor of Gulfport, referring to
North Gulfport residents and others who are against a proposed retail
development.
"If
there were any criminal acts or any laws that have been violated, somebody
should go to jail," - Frank Melton fuming over the possible illegal
transfer of planes by an Ex-Lott aide.
When
asked if Paul Minor paid off any of his campaign loans Chief Justice Edwin
Pittman said, "Not that I'm aware of."
"I
am very disappointed. The way I see it I can't run for anything."
- Tom Cameron after Chancery Judge Lewis E. Patten ruled against Cameron
in his suit against the Mississippi Republican Party.
**************************************************** Movers and Shakers **************************************************** Amanda McPhail, granddaughter of former Mississippi Republican Party
(MRP) chairman Evelyn McPhail and a native of
the MississippiGulfCoast, is working as the 4th
Congressional District Field Director for Haley Barbour's campaign for
Governor. Evelyn McPhail was beloved by
Republicans across Mississippi and the country, and was known for
expanding the Republican Party through her emphasis on grassroots campaigning.
She died in November 1998 from injuries suffered in a car accident in
1997. She was elected to the number two spot at the Republican National
Committee (RNC) while Haley Barbour was Chairman of the RNC. Until
recently, Amanda McPhail worked as Political
Director of the Georgia Republican Party with their Chairman, Ralph Reed
(former head of the national Christian Coalition). Amanda was instrumental
in the massive grassroots effort last year that helped underdog Republican
Saxby Chambliss defeat incumbent Democrat Senator Max Cleland as well
as helping elect Republican Sonny Perdue over the favored incumbent Democrat
Governor Roy Barnes. Expect a grassroots effort from the Barbour campaign
in South Mississippi.