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Magnolia Political Report
March 5, 2003
(Number 39)
MagnoliaReport.com
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FUUUUUMBLE!!!
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Throughout the last week of February, rumors spread like wildfire throughout
the state capitol that Governor Ronnie Musgrove was attempting an end run around
the Governor’s election by lobbying the state’s College Board to
become the president of Delta State University in Cleveland, Mississippi rather
than run for reelection. While intrigued by such rumors, some dismissed them
at face value as being far fetched.
However, the story was soon substantiated in a column written by Daily Journal columnist Bobby Harrison. In the Harrison story, College Board member Bill Crawford of Meridian asserted that the board learned of Musgrove’s “possible interest” in the DSU presidency last week, and decided to move forward with the normal search process to fill the presidency post. “If he (Musgrove) is interested, he should go through the regular process like anyone else,” said Crawford.
In an obvious effort to stop the rumor mill bleeding, Musgrove’s Communications staff made public on Friday, February 21, that the Governor had picked up his qualifying papers from the Mississippi Democratic Party, which weren’t due until March 1 for any and all candidates running for office in 2003.
However, the rumors persisted and grew over the course of the next few days, with Musgrove apparently continuing the push for the DSU presidency. While most political observers suspected all along that Musgrove would indeed stand for reelection, his pursued interest in the DSU presidency cause some to question whether Musgrove believes that his reelection prospects have become dim over the last few months. Capitol insiders whisper that Musgrove’s own polling shows that his popularity and re-elect numbers are currently pretty dismal. The editor of the Biloxi Sun Herald, Stan Tiner, stated so gracefully in his editorial column Seven Days in February, “At this moment, it became obvious to this pundit that, in the end, Musgrove has probably guaranteed he will neither be president of the university nor reelected governor of the state.”
As rumors about Musgrove’s reelection hesitations swirled through political circles on last Thursday, political insider discussions turned to the increasing possibility of the prospect that Jackson plaintiff lawyer John Arthur Eaves, Jr. would soon become a Democratic gubernatorial candidate. Eaves, who has run television advertising over the last several months soliciting plaintiffs for lawsuits, while simultaneously criticizing Musgrove for signing the 2002 tort reform bills into law, had to be buoyed by Musgrove’s indecisiveness over the last few weeks. Political rumor became reality in the Eaves circumstance, as he qualified to challenge Musgrove a few days prior to the deadline.
Musgrove finally put an end (or did he?) to the DSU speculation by holding a press conference on Wednesday, February 26, to announce that he would stand for reelection. He turned in his qualifying papers that same day.
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LT GOVERNOR’S FIELD CROWDED ON THE LEFT
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With Senator Barbara Blackmon and former Supreme Court Justice Jim Roberts already
qualified to run for the Democratic nomination for Lieutenant Governor, a new
face popped up on March 1. Former Mississippi Valley State University administrator,
Troy Brown, who ran unsuccessfully for the post in 1999, threw his hat into
the ring again. This will be Brown’s third attempt to win a state-wide
election over the last 4 years, since he was also defeated in 2000 as the challenger
to U.S. Senator Trent Lott.
Political watchers wonder if Brown was urged by forces opposed to Senator Barbara Blackmon’s campaign to enter the race in an obvious effort to dilute Blackmon’s ability to attract the black vote in the Democratic primary. However, there will almost certainly be a great discrepancy in the resources available to the respective campaigns of Blackmon, who has both personal wealth and friends in the plaintiff’s bar that she can call upon. Also, Brown has never demonstrated a knack for political fundraising. This discrepancy should have a tremendous effect on which African American candidates running for Lieutenant Governor are able to get their message out to the black voters in the Democratic primary. The old adage, “Money is the mother’s milk of politics” should apply quite well here.
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LATE BLOOMERS
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With last minute filings by candidates in legislative and statewide races, trial
lawyers in Mississippi are mounting a widespread effort to challenge those who
supported tort reform in last year’s special session. One interesting
late entry is Jackson trial lawyer Mitch Tyner who is running against Haley
Barbour in the Republican primary for Governor. “Tyner said he is a longtime
Republican…,” reads the Clarion-Ledger on Sunday, March 2. A quick
check of recent political contributions (www.fec.gov - www.sos.state.ms.us)
by Mitch Tyner may raise eyebrows amongst the Republican faithful.
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Unopposed Democrat: Senate
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12 Seats were decided on the March 1 filing deadline, consisting of 7 Democrats
and 5 Republicans.
State
Senate 10 Nolan Mettetal Democrat
State Senate 12 Johnnie Walls, Jr. Democrat
State Senate 16 Bennie Turner Democrat
State Senate 24 David Jordan Democrat
State Senate 24 David Jordan Democrat
State Senate 24 David Jordan Democrat
State Senate 26 John Horhn Democrat
State Senate 27 Hillman Frazier Democrat
State Senate 50 Tommy Gollott Democrat
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Unopposed Republicans: Senate
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The most surprising was in Senate District 19, involving Merle Flowers, who
is the only non-incumbent with a free ride. He attributes it to hard work, good
organization, and a pile of cash on hand (over $75,000).
State
Senate 19 Merle Flowers Republican
State Senate 20 Charlie Ross Republican
State Senate 25 Walter Michel Republican
State Senate 44 Tom King Republican
State Senate 49 Billy Hewes Republican
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Democrat Primary Only: Senate
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Seven more races will be decided in the Democratic primary, where there are
not any Republican challengers. Senate District 21, which was held by Barbara
Blackmon, is being contested by 5 Democrats and 1 Independent. In Senate District
8, Jack Gordon, Appropriations Chair, is being challenged by Raymond Paden,
who is a former superintendent of the Chickasaw County School System. Senate
District 39 features a re-match between Cindy Hyde-Smith and W.L. Rayborn. Rayborn,
who was the incumbent in ’99, was defeated by Hyde-Smith by a mere 1,072
votes (53%-47%).
State
Senate 8 Jack Gordon Democrat
State Senate 8 Raymond Paden Democrat
State
Senate 13 Terrence Hurssey, Sr. Democrat
State Senate 13 Willie Simmons Democrat
State
Senate 21 Eugene Fouche' Democrat
State Senate 21 Kenneth Jones Democrat
State Senate 21 Leroy Lacy Independent
State Senate 21 Rob Martin Democrat
State Senate 21 Alice Scott Democrat
State Senate 21 Joseph Thomas Democrat
State
Senate 28 Pam Confer Democrat
State Senate 28 Alice Harden Democrat
State
Senate 34 Dennis Robinson Democrat
State Senate 34 Jack Staples Democrat
State Senate 34 Billy Thames Democrat
State
Senate 37 Ruby Bates Democrat
State Senate 37 Bob Dearing Democrat
State
Senate 38 Kelvin Butler Democrat
State Senate 38 Robert Johnson, III Democrat
State
Senate 39 Cindy Hyde-Smith Democrat
State Senate 39 W.L. Rayborn Democrat
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Republican Primary Only: Senate
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In Senate District 30, incumbent Senator Dean Kirby, Chairman of the Insurance
Committee, will face Monica Baldwin, a pro-life activist who formerly worked
for American Family Radio. In Senate District 51, Senator Tommy Robertson, who
was one of the Senates strongest advocates of tort reform, is being challenged
by Mickie Baria, mother of Mississippi Trial Lawyers Association President David
Baria.
State
Senate 30 Monica Baldwin Republican
State Senate 30 Dean Kirby Republican
State
Senate 51 Mickie Baria Republican
State Senate 51 Tommy Robertson Republican
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Democrat Primary vs. Unopposed Republican
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Senate newcomer Charles Walden, narrowly elected in a special election in Senate
District 5 last November, will face the man he defeated by 52 votes, J.P. Wilemon.
This should be one of the most tightly contested senate races of the year. Wilemon
must first get past Democrat Challenger, Brad Morris, who will make his first
run at elected office. Recent party switcher Tommy Dickerson will face opposition
in the General election, but has a Republican leaning district that will give
him an advantage. Senator Alan Nunnelee, Vice-Chairman of the Finance Committee,
will face the winner of the Democratic Primary between Doyle Lambert and Sherry
Pittman, a former “Teacher of the Year”.
State
Senate 5 Brad Morris Democrat
State Senate 5 Charles Walden Republican
State Senate 5 J.P. Wilemon, Jr. Democrat
State
Senate 6 Doyle Lambert Democrat
State Senate 6 Alan Nunnelee Republican
State Senate 6 Sherry Pittman Democrat
State
Senate 11 Dwight Barfield Independent
State Senate 11 Joseph Dulaney Democrat
State Senate 11 Columbus Dunn Republican
State Senate 11 Robert Jackson Democrat
State Senate 11 Boone Newton Democrat
State Senate 11 Joe Phillips, Sr. Democrat
State
Senate 36 E. Davis Democrat
State Senate 36 Johnnie McDaniels Democrat
State Senate 36 Lynn Posey Democrat
State Senate 36 Charlie Stogner Republican
State
Senate 43 Tommy Dickerson Republican
State Senate 43 Billy Gordon Democrat
State Senate 43 Sherra Lane Democrat
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Republican Primary vs. Unopposed Democrat
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In the Senate District 18 race, Senator Gloria Williamson, former State Democratic
Party Chairwoman, will find strong opposition in either Don Fulton, executive
at NEMCO (a Philadephia based garment plant), or Willie Jackson, manager of
the Neshoba Gin Association. Fulton may have the fundraising edge over Jackson,
but Jackson has deep ties to the county’s Republican activists throughout
the district. Whoever emerges from the primary should give Williamson a run
for her money. In Senate District 35, Rob Smith is leaving his seat to make
a run for Treasurer. Perry Lee of Simpson County has an inside track to pick
up the seat for Republicans. He must first get by Cliff Brown in the primary
and then will square off against Daniel Ware, who has no Democratic opposition.
Incumbent Republican Senator Joe Stogner heads into a tricky race for the Republican
nomination. Stogner’s home base is in Sandy Hook, in rural Marion County,
where there are few Republican primary votes. He faces two challengers from
GOP vote-rich Pearl River County. Duane Wheat currently serves as a Democrat
school board official. He initially qualified as a Democrat, but withdrew his
nomination and qualified as a Republican. Sidney Albritton, whose father is
currently running as a Republican for Public Service Commissioner, is also throwing
his hat into the primary race.
State Senate 18 Don Fulton Republican
State Senate 18 Willie Jackson Republican
State Senate 18 Gloria Williamson Democrat
State
Senate 32 Willie Coleman Republican
State Senate 32 Sampson Jackson, II Democrat
State Senate 32 Johnny White Republican
State
Senate 35 Cliff Brown Republican
State Senate 35 Perry Lee Republican
State Senate 35 Daniel Ware Democrat
State
Senate 40 Sid Albritton Republican
State Senate 40 Ann Simmons Democrat
State Senate 40 Joseph Stogner Republican
State Senate 40 Duane Wheat Republican
State
Senate 41 Raylawni Branch Republican
State Senate 41 Billy Harvey Democrat
State Senate 41 Speedy Smith Republican
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Democrat Primary vs. Republican Primary
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It will be a horse race in Senate District 2 between Ralph Doxey, son of former
Congressman Wall Doxey, and Danny Jackson. Whoever emerges from the primary
is likely to win the seat. Incumbent Democrat Senator Nickey Browning, from
Pontotoc, has 3 Democrat primary challengers, but should come out on top. Browning
will face opposition in the General but should have the decided advantage based
on his conservative voting record. In what might be the Senate race of the year,
President Pro Tempore Travis Little, who made the big switch to the GOP, will
square off against Jerry Barnes in the Republican Primary. Things could get
tricky for Little considering in 1999, only 180 votes were cast in the Republican
Primary in his home base in Alcorn County. A concerted effort by Little’s
foes on both sides of the fence could make this an interesting race to watch.
Once he gets through the primary, his strength as President Pro Tempore and
as a hometown favorite should see him through. Senate District 15 is going to
be another one of the top open seat races to watch in 2003. Minister and popular
talk show host, Gary Jackson, will vie for the Republican nomination against
Starkville Representative Rob Roberson, whose house district was a casualty
of Redistricting. Jackson is a well known quantity around the district, but
Roberson has the advantage of incumbency in the vote-rich area of Starkville.
Cecil Simmons, a former Democrat legislator, could be pushed by popular Starkville
native Gloria Liddell. Conventional wisdom around the district gives Republicans
the advantage if Jackson is the nominee based on his strength across the district
in both rural communities and Starkville. Former House member, Charles Weissinger
of Rolling Fork, and city of Leland activist and Alderwoman, Mala Brooks, face
off in a bid to succeed retiring Senator Neely Carlton. Representative Tom Cameron,
who lost his House seat to Redistricting, meets Hollandale CPA Buck Clarke,
and Greenville native Steve Nick in the Republican Primary. According to the
Delta Democrat Times, questions about Tom Cameron’s residency have been
cleared up. This race could come down to the wire with the possibility of Independent
Candidate, Mark Crawford, playing the spoiler.
State
Senate 2 Tom Coward Democrat
State Senate 2 Margret Delashmit Republican
State Senate 2 Ralph Doxey Democrat
State Senate 2 Danny Jackson Democrat
State Senate 2 Thelbert Lesure Republican
State Senate 2 Lennell Lucas Democrat
State
Senate 3 Nickey Browning Democrat
State Senate 3 Bruce McCoy Republican
State Senate 3 Lee Newman Republican
State Senate 3 Carl Sudduth Democrat
State Senate 3 Tim Tucker Democrat
State Senate 3 Patty Young Democrat
State
Senate 4 Jerry Barnes Republican
State Senate 4 Travis Little Republican
State Senate 4 Danny Lowery Democrat
State Senate 4 Eric Powell Democrat
State
Senate 15 Gary Jackson Republican
State Senate 15 Gloria Liddell Democrat
State Senate 15 Rob Roberson Republican
State Senate 15 Cecil Simmons Democrat
State
Senate 22 Mala Brooks Democrat
State Senate 22 Tom Cameron Republican
State Senate 22 Buck Clarke Republican
State Senate 22 Mark Crawford Independent
State Senate 22 Steve Nick Republican
State Senate 22 Charles Weissinger, Jr. Democrat
State
Senate 29 Cadillac Harris Democrat
State Senate 29 Dewayne Thomas Democrat
State Senate 29 Pop-E-Lock Walker Republican
State Senate 29 Richard White Republican
State
Senate 42 Jones Brogdon Democrat
State Senate 42 Sid Easterling Republican
State Senate 42 Randy Ellzey Democrat
State Senate 42 Stacey Pickering Republican
State
Senate 45 Craig Ducksworth Democrat
State Senate 45 Nathan Jordan Independent
State Senate 45 J. Morgan Republican
State Senate 45 Ray Price Democrat
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General Election Only: Senate
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Terry Brown (R), former state representative and 1999 candidate for Lt. Governor,
will square off against David Shelton (D),former three term Lowndes County Chancery
Clerk, in the General Election. Both are popular candidates, which should lead
to a highly contested race, even though the district leans Republican. Complicating
Brown’s candidacy is the last minute entrance of Independent candidate
Joe Studdard, a local attorney who has the ability to cut into Brown’s
base in the New Hope area. The contest in District 48 between first-term incumbent
Debbie Dawkins and Long Beach Mayor Robert Bass should be a barn-burner. The
district leans Democrat, but Dawkins is a very outspoken and polarizing figure
in the community, while Bass has served as Long Beach Mayor.Senate District
9 offers a match-up between incumbent Gray Tollison and former Oxford Mayor
Pat Lamar. Tollison has several advantages in the race, but Lamar can win if
she can attract rural voters in Lafayette and Yalobusha counties that she is
the better choice. Although these are the top three races on the list, keep
an eye on the others. Several of these challengers could gain momentum and pose
real problems for the incumbents in the fall.
State
Senate 1 Bobby Chamberlin Republican
State Senate 1 Josephina Zorzoli Democrat
State
Senate 7 Chris Brown Republican
State Senate 7 Hob Bryan Democrat
State
Senate 9 Patricia Lamar Republican
State Senate 9 Gray Tollison Democrat
State
Senate 14 Mark Burton Democrat
State Senate 14 Bunky Huggins Republican
State
Senate 17 Terry Brown Republican
State Senate 17 Chris Chain (Withdrew) Republican
State Senate 17 David Shelton Democrat
State
Senate 23 Mike Chaney Republican
State Senate 23 Marcie Southerland Democrat
State
Senate 31 Terry Burton Republican
State Senate 31 Luke Gibbon Independent
State Senate 31 Jason Mangum Democrat
State
Senate 46 Scottie Cuevas Democrat
State Senate 46 Harry Ward Republican
State
Senate 47 Ezell Lee Democrat
State Senate 47 Mike Seymour Republican
State
Senate 48 Robert Bass Republican
State Senate 48 Deborah Dawkins Democrat
State
Senate 52 Robert Hooks Democrat
State Senate 52 Tommy Moffatt Republican
***The next report will break down the House races***
